November Nine: Predictions by the Numbers

by Aaron Angerman

Never before has the World Series of Poker Main Event winner been harder to pick. Even with the extra 116 days given to pick a final table standout, the eclectic mix of players and lack of marquee names in the "November Nine" have predictions all over the place. In order to avoid all the hype when placing my bet on the 2008 Main Event winner, I've decided to take a look at the numbers.

A few prominent factors come to mind when I'm picking a winner at the final table; chip stack, tournament experience, position, playing style, name value and lastly, my gut feeling. Seeing how we won't know anything about position until after the redraw, and there isn't really anyone of name value in the "November Nine", I've gathered some information on past WSOP Main Event final tables to see how the other factors played out.

For this piece, we will be looking mainly at the results from the final tables from the 2003 WSOP to the present. When Chris Moneymaker triggered the poker boom in 2003, just 839 players ponied up the $10K buy-in. In 2004, Greg "Fossilman" Raymer bested a field 2,576 to earn the title. Jamie Gold outlasted 8,772 others in 2006 and another 6,844 bought in to the Main Event this year. Seeing that prior to the 2000 Main Event, the field had never topped 400 players, we'll focus more on the marathons that are today's big buy-in poker tournaments.

By looking at the last five final tables, I hope to find out if chip stacks, age, experience and lines from bookmakers played any part in picking a winner. Here's what I found out.

Will Dennis Phillips take this thing wire-to-wire and turn his chip lead into $9 million?

Let's take a look at the numbers.

• In 2003, eventual winner Chris Moneymaker entered the final table as the chip leader with more than 2.3 million. Amir Vahedi was second in chips at that table, with 1.4 million. We all know how that turned out.
• At next year's final table, Greg Raymer controlled more than 8 million chips, good for more than a 3 million chip lead on the next guy, Matt Dean.
• In 2006, it was the Jamie Gold show. Allen Cunningham would start the day with 17 million plus, good for second to Gold's 26 million. Gold would go wire-to-wire for the record setting $12 million payday.

Recent history reinforces the value of a big stack, with three of the last five winners holding onto a big chip lead entering the final table. The only problem... this year there is only a slight chip lead, with Demidov just 2 million behind Phillips. Montgomery and Eastgate are right behind Demidov. Two recent final tables had similar chip distribution, they turned out as follows:

• Back in 2005, Aaron Kanter entered the final table with 10 million chips and the lead. But Tex Barch, Andy Black and Mike Matusow each sat 1 million chips behind, respectively, leaving Kanter zero breathing room. Meanwhile, Joe Hachem sat back with his 5 million and watched players leave. Soon he was short-handed and on his way to the title.
• Last year, only Alex Kravchenko would bring fewer chips with him to the final table than Jerry Yang. Fast-forward through a Philip Hilm big stack blow-up and numerous Yang prayers, soon you're watching the father of eight steamroll his way to more than $8 million and one of the more improbable wins in poker history.

This is all bad news for chip leader Dennis Phillips, as well as the other three players with 18 million chips or more, who may be forced to beat each other up a little too much. These numbers bode well for both Ylon Schwartz and Darus Suharto. Both will bring 12 million with them to the table on November 9th, which should allow them, the two most patient players at the table, to pick their spots and slowly jump up the payouts list.

Lean - Schwartz / Suharto

Is it true that age ain't nuthin' but a number?

Online poker has injected the poker world with herds of 20-something poker prodigies, snatching up million dollar prizes in all corners of the world. With records falling everyday for "the youngest to win this," and the "youngest to win that," post-poker boom, the WSOP Main Event champ has yet to be wet behind the ears.

Main Event winner's age:

• 2004 - Greg Raymer - 40-years-old
• 2005 - Joe Hachem - 38-years-old
• 2006 - Jamie Gold - 36-years-old
• 2007 - Jerry Yang - 38-years-old

  Average age - 38-years-old

Is there something about the ripeness of a poker player's brain at this age? Even if that isn't the case, this is all good news for Darus Suharto, 39, and even better news for Ylon Schwartz, 38. Not yet over the hill, but full of patience and experience, history shows that this duo may be in their final table prime.

By digging deeper, we notice that since Phil Hellmuth set the record by winning the 1989 series at age 24, only three 20-somethings have claimed the top prize; Huck seed in 1996 at age 27, Carlos Mortensen in 2001 at 29 and Moneymaker in 2003 at age 27. Then again, this is the first time 20-somethings have been the majority at the Main Event final table.

Lean - Schwartz / Suharto

How big of a factor is tournament experience?

While we don't have a Dan Harrington, Mike Matusow, Allen Cunningham or even Lee Watkinson at the final table, we do have a lineup with some experienced tournament players, online pros and a couple relative unknowns. Of this mix, what player type will benefit most?

Number of career cashes before main event win:

• Chris Moneymaker - 0
• Greg Raymer - 8
• Joe Hachem - 11
• Jamie Gold - 11
• Jerry Yang - 0

  Average cashes - 6

It's hard to ignore the goose egg bookends that are Moneymaker and Yang's Cinderella stories, but if you look at the three winners in between, they had 20 cashes between them.

Raymer 's numbers were outshined by Dan Harrington at the 2004 final table, a former Main Event winner making his second-straight bid for Main Event bracelet #2. Hachem was looking up at Mike Matusow's 30-ish career cashes when he sat down at the final table. Allen Cunningham's handful of bracelets had everyone picking him to topple Gold's huge chip stack. It didn't happen. What does any of this prove?

Well, it shows that the most accomplished players at the table usually give way for tournament noobs or players with moderate prior success. Bad news for players like Rheem, Schwartz and Kim, who have each been around the block. Good news for both Montgomery and Phillips. Montgomery's half dozen prior payouts put him right on the average. Phillips is the only player at the final table with a blank resume in the PokerPages.com tournament database, giving him the Cinderella edge.

Lean - Montgomery / Phillips

What do the bookies have to say about it?

Opening odds to win the 2008 Main Event, courtesy of Bodoglife.com:

• Dennis Phillips - 3/1
• Scott Montgomery - 4/1
• Ivan Demidov - 9/2
• Peter Eastgate - 11/2
• Chino Rheem - 15/2
• Ylon Schwartz - 8/1
• Darus Suharto - 17/2
• Craig Marquis - 10/1
• Kelly Kim - 25/1

Current odds, as of November 6th:

• Dennis Phillips - 4/1
• Scott Montgomery - 4/1
• Ivan Demidov - 4/1
• Peter Eastgate - 5/1
• Chino Rheem - 9/2
• Ylon Schwartz - 13/2
• Darus Suharto - 13/2
• Craig Marquis - 15/2
• Kelly Kim - 15/1

Demidov's impressive run during the break has moved him into the spot as final table favorite, along with Montgomery and Phillips. The money seems to be on all the experienced players, as the only two to see their odds slip were Phillips and Suharto, who have one prior cash between them.

For some perspective, here are Bodog's numbers from last year's table:

• Philip Hilm - 14/5
• Tuan Lam - 7/2
• Lee Watkinson - 7/2
• John Kalmar - 4/1
• Raymond Rahme - 7/1
• Hevad "Rain" Khan - 7/1
• Lee Childs - 8/1
• Jerry Yang - 9/1
• Alex Kravchenko - 9/1

Yang paid bettors off nine-fold after winning last year. Favorite Philip Hilm was the first to go. Kelly Kim is battling a short stack smaller than Yang ever faced, but Marquis, Suharto and Schwartz are right in that area. I was unable to uncover what the lines were (if there were any) on Raymer or Gold taking it down, but since they held big chip leads, we'll exclude them from the conversation.

Joe Hachem entered the final table as a relative unknown with almost exactly half of Aaron Kanter's big stack. Schwartz, Suharto, Rheem and Marquis all fall in the 10-12 million chip range, just below the half may mark of Phillips' 26 million stack. Rheem eliminates himself from the conversation as the trendy pick at 9/2, leaving a trio of players fitting the bill.

Lean - Marquis / Schwartz / Suharto, in that order

Will a player from the US take it down this year?

Four of the last five Main Event winners have kept the top prize stateside. Only Joe Hachem would take his winnings elsewhere. Jerry Yang, a Laos native, has called the US home since 1979.

Maybe the better question to ask would be, "will a player born in the US take it down?"

American's Moneymaker, Raymer and Gold each took their respective final tables to school. But remember, each of those players had sizable chip leads. In 2005 and 2007, when players held onto just slight chip leads, short stacks Hachem (Australia via Lebanon) and Yang, both born outside the US, emerged victorious.
There is no monster chip lead this year. Does that mean a long shot born outside the US takes the $9 million home? If so, Darus Suharto, at 13/2 to win and hailing from Toronto via Indonesia, may be the last player standing.

As far as the US' chances go, the five Yanks still hanging around (Philips, Schwartz, Rheem, Marquis, Kim) have almost 62 million in chips between them. Demidov, Montgomery and Eastgate top that mark by a few hundred thousand on their own. Throw in Suharto's 12 million and even though the foreigners are outnumbered 4-5, when looking at chip volume, there's about a 55 percent chance that the bracelet leaves our borders. If that's the case, Canada, with both Montgomery and Suharto still alive, is a highly possible destination.

When looking at pure numbers, more than half the table is from the states, a hard number to overlook. Last year, only Hevad Khan, Lee Childs and Watkinson were born in the states. On the other hand, American citizens were the minority at last year's table, yet one of them took it down. In conclusion; poker is global now. With no clear frontrunner, I'll take five shots at the bracelet over four, any day.

Lean - the bracelet stays in the US

Ylon Schwartz and Darus Suharto found favorable results in my research, each seeing their name come up no less than three times. Both players feature a tight, yet aggressive, playing style which should allow them to outlast the more reckless players, putting them in position for their first win. Here's where the gut feeling comes in.

I'm going with Ylon Schwartz as my horse, despite all previous notions that Chino, Eastgate or Demidov would leave the Rio $9 million richer. In the end, at a final table where all bets are off, my money is on the 38-year-old Brooklyn rounder. Schwartz's pension for "small-ball" and years of experience at the chess tables, as well as poker tables, should assure him a spot in the top four. After that, I'm a gambling man, gotta go with the numbers. Getting Ylon Schwartz at 13/2 to be the next WSOP Main Event champion seems like the right price. Then again, if any of you were able to take a look at my NFL betting results over the last couple years, you may have stopped reading a long time ago.

How wrong will I be? You won't have to wait long to find out. The cards will be in the air at the final table on Sunday at 10 a.m. PST. The final two will return on Monday for a heads-up match, with ESPN airing the episode on Tuesday, November 11th.

For those who can't wait that long, PokerPages.com will be at the Rio in Las Vegas, providing complete live coverage of all the action. Click here to find the final table blog.

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