Compounding Mistakes

by David Apostolico

Poker is not only situational but textual. By textual, I mean that every game has its own unique dynamic. There will be an ebb and flow that will naturally occur. Everything builds off what has transpired before. While it's useful to talk about specific situations, it's not enough if we don't completely understand the context of that situation. For instance, is it sufficient to state I was sitting on an average stack (about 20 times the big blind) with A-9 suited in the big blind when a loose aggressive player open raises for three times the big blind from the button? That may give a thumbnail of the situation but we don't necessarily understand the context. Had the button consistently raised my blind? Would he fold to a raise? How many hands had we played together? What happened in those previous hands?

I always find it interesting how many times in a poker game, one player will consistently lose to another player. There are many reasons for this. The winning player may be getting the cards. Or the winning player may be getting inside the head of the losing player. Or, sometimes, the losing player makes a mistake and then compounds it in subsequent hands. The other night I committed the latter and I'd like to discuss that here as it also illustrates the importance of context.

The very first hand of the tournament I won a sizeable pot when my A-J hit a Jack high flop. The flop had two clubs and I let my opponent chase me to the river before I checked and allowed him the chance to bluff at it when his flush didn't come through. The very next hand I limped from early position with J-10 suited before calling a late position raiser. The flop came Q-9-2 rainbow giving me an open-ended straight draw. I was fairly certain my opponent had a middle pocket pair so I checked to see what he would do. He made a nice size bet and I called fairly certain that he did not have a set or a Queen. The turn brought another 9 which was an interesting card. I had planned to make a play for the pot if I missed my straight and that 9 had to scare my opponent. I checked again with the intention of check-raising. My opponent made a big bet that screamed of vulnerability. I was all set to raise when I called instead. I can't explain why I did it other than I just wasn't sure if he was capable of laying his hand down. The river brought a blank and now, I had to fire out if I wanted to win the pot. Instead, I checked and basically forfeited the pot to his pocket tens. While this was on the surface a weak play, I must put this in context. This was in a regular game I play where most of the players are calling stations. You just can't chase them off of any marginal holding. I hadn't played with the villain here so I wasn't sure if he was capable of folding or not.

I didn't like the outcome of that hand, but I was also confident that I would have a chance to redeem myself later on. I played very effectively against other players and was sitting on the second highest stack at the table. My nemesis, however, fueled by the chips I gave him was getting a rush of cards and was sitting on the biggest stack at the table. I faced a similar situation with him again when I had a flush draw on the flop and he bet out. Again, I knew he was vulnerable and I should have raised him. With his big stack, though, I was hesitant and I ended up folding on the turn. By failing to chase him off of that first hand we had tangled together, I had created a monster.

He was able to parlay his chips into a huge stack and was bullying the table. His confidence was brewing along with his chip stack. The entire context of the game had taken a different course than if I had played that first encounter differently. This led to the critical hand of the tournament for me. With the blinds at $200-$400 (with $50 antes), I limped in with A-9 suited only to face a raise to $1000 from my nemesis. I called. The flop came 8-8-Q. I checked and our villain bet out $500. This tiny bet screamed that he had a huge hand but I was tired of losing to this guy so I raised another $1300. He just called and I knew that I had to give the hand up. Now, the turn brought another 8 and my thinking changed. My opponent knew I was completely capable of playing a hand like 7-8 suited in this situation. I checked as did my opponent behind me. I engaged him in banter and I knew he believed I had the 8. The river brought a blank. I had about $6500 in chips behind me. I thought for a while about what to do figuring that time contemplated would only increase the likelihood that I had the 8. I thought about still giving the hand up but I knew this guy was absolutely convinced that I had the case 8. I thought about going all-in but if I was wrong, I didn't want to be eliminated. I had to make a big enough bet, though, to keep him from making a crying call. I finally settled on a $4500 bet which I hoped he would interpret as me trying to find the maximum value bet I could get away with.

He took a few minutes before finally explaining that he knew I had the 8 but he was going to call anyway because he had the chips to do it and he just couldn't fold his hand. He turned over pocket Queens and I was left crippled. I really believe that if he had just had one Queen, he folds there. The lesson here is that I never would have gotten sucked into this situation if I hadn't missed that earlier opportunity. I was waiting for another chance to make a play at this guy but, unfortunately I picked the wrong time. The context of what happened previously affected my judgment here however the play did confirm for me that I he would have folded that first hand we played.

This article was published at an earlier date on PokerPages.com and is being rerun due to popular demand.

About the Author
David Apostolico is the author of Lessons from the Pro Poker Tour and Tournament Poker and The Art of War.
You can contact him at thepokerwriter@comcast.net