Maximizing Luck

By David Apostolico

Who is the luckiest player at the poker table? The one who gets the most out of a stroke of good luck, when it happens. Luck, both good and bad, is a staple of poker. To complain about it is as useless as waiting for it. Luck will happen in all of its permutations to everyone who bellies up to the felt and over the long term it will even out. Yet, to the inexperienced, it will appear that certain players are unusually lucky. The novice will often lament the luck of a more accomplished opponent.

Part of this is simple rationalization. It is human nature to attribute someone else's success to luck, lest we feel bad about ourselves. More significantly, though, is the inability to see the skill behind the luck. The cards, even good ones, don't tell the whole story. Getting pocket aces is lucky. Playing them for maximum value is not.

There's a bit of accepted wisdom in poker that goes something like this: Anyone can play well when they are getting cards, but only the good players can play well when they are not getting cards. The implication of this is that what separates a good player from a bad one is how well he performs when he is not getting cards. There's some truth to that statement, but it certainly doesn't tell the whole story. What separates good players from bad ones is their ability to play every situation better - especially when they are getting lucky.

Luck comes in many forms of poker and many inexperienced players don't recognize them. Good players not only recognize them but exploit them. Luck happens when everyone folds to you in the cutoff when you desperately need chips in a tournament. A good player raises regardless of his cards while a bad one folds, lamenting his bad luck.

Luck happens when an opponent fails to follow through on a pre-flop raise and checks the flop. Good players sense weakness and take the pot down. Poor players check along. Luck happens when an opponent makes a weak bet and gives you proper odds to draw out. Good players take advantage. Bad players are the ones that are afraid to protect their hand and then groan about their horrible luck when they are out-drawn on the river.

Luck happens when four players limp ahead of you into a pot and you are holding 3-4 of hearts on the button. A good player limps in as well, while a bad player folds what he perceives to be an unplayable hand. When the flop comes A-2-5 ,with two hearts, the good player is deemed lucky.

Luck happens when everyone at your table tightens up as you approach the bubble of a tournament. Good players get aggressive and accumulate chips. Bad players tighten up as well, and pray they make the money.

Finally, luck happens when you make a monster hand. A good player will know his opponents and their tendencies. Additionally, a good player will know what his opponents think of him. A good player will make constant adjustments and will mix up his play to keep his opponents off balance. A good player will know what his opponents are likely to hold, and how they are likely to play a hand. A poor player plays in a vacuum with little or no thought to his opponent or situation. When he gets a strong hand, he doesn't know how to extract as much as he can out of it. He just bets and hopes for the best.

Learn to recognize all of these and many other "lucky" situations and when they happen to you, don't blow it.

About the Author
David Apostolico is the author of numerous poker books including Lessons from the Felt, Machiavellian Poker Strategy, and Tournament Poker and the Art of War. You can contact him at thepokerwriter@comcast.net.