Young Guns Need to Think About Growing Old
By Amy Calistri
An infusion of new blood into any enterprise challenges prevailing wisdom and
takes performance to exciting new levels. And in poker, we have been blessed
with the arrival of a plethora of "young guns". They've got game,
a gambler's heart and the kind of bravado that only youth can support. But as
was often the case in the Old West, it looks like some of our young guns will
be pushing up daisies prematurely.
Biting the Dust: Evidence from the Forums
Scanning the forums, I am starting to see some repetitive themes that point
to an early demise for some talented new players. Facetiously I have categorized
these threads into two camps: "I know I'm a winning tournament player because
I won once," and "If I didn't keep losing my bankroll, I could be
a winning player." While I have toyed with the themes to highlight the
obvious logical conundrum, these players may indeed be more right than wrong
in their assessment. There are many talented players, even well known professionals,
that fall victim to the underlying problem these threads stem from. The problem
isn't related to poor hand selection, an inability to read players, or ineffective
betting strategies. In most cases, the themes reflect a lack of understanding
of the interaction between a player's required bankroll and the expected variation
of returns for the limits and/or buy-ins they are playing. The good news is
that these are not difficult concepts to understand. The bad news is that your
failure to properly recognize their importance may be hazardous to your health
as a player.
Thinking About the War, Not Just the Shootout
Part of the young gun's problem is viewing poker encounters as one-time events.
After an event or a session, they check to see if they were left standing when
the money got paid out, or whether their bankroll increased or decreased. The
event defines them until their next encounter. But this "shootout"
mentality is for short timers. If you have any illusions about playing poker
into your golden years, you have to start thinking of poker as a war.
In a shootout, you put it all on the line; win or lose. But in war, you need
a battle plan. You have to pick your battles carefully, considering field position,
supply lines, and your relative strength and weaknesses. If you play a tournament
that uses most of your bankroll ammo, what are the chances you will be well
armed to fight the next battle? If you are a solid player that routinely breaks
into the top 25% of the field, but rarely cracks the final table, maybe a sit
& go that pays the top 30% is a better battlefield for you than a tournament
that pays the top 11%. If you've lost a few key battles and your ammo supply
is down, maybe you need to engage in a few ring game skirmishes to build your
resources up before you take on another resource intensive encounter.
Very few wars are won with a single battle. And most winning sides of a war
saw their share of losses on the battlefield. As a winning poker player, you
will see your share of losses as well. But your ability to prevail absolutely
depends on your ability to pick your battles in a manner that allows you to
continue to fight the good fight.
Chris Moneymaker: Poker's Soldier
When Chris Moneymaker won the 2003 World Series of Poker Championship, he became
the poster boy for young guns. As a virtual unknown, Moneymaker took on a world
class field to become the victor in poker's most prestigious battle. Many people
focused on Moneymaker's gambler's heart, as evidenced by his bold play during
poker's big dance. But in doing so, they missed one of Moneymaker's strongest
assets, his accountant's head. I believe that Chris is miscast as a young gun.
Chris has shown every indication that he is doing what it takes to become an
old soldier in the poker wars.
When Moneymaker decided to play the WSOP, he didn't plunk down $10,000 of his
own money on this obvious long shot. Chris gained his WSOP seat on a total investment
of $40. He covered his travel expenses by selling a portion of his potential
winnings. Before the words "shuffle up and deal" were uttered, Moneymaker
had crafted the ultimate battle plan, a plan that insured he had nothing to
lose and everything to gain.
There is a prevalent rumor that Chris Moneymaker is broke, fueled by his absence
from the high profile "big buy-in" tournament events. But here again,
people have underestimated Moneymaker's abilities as a savvy poker warrior.
Chris kept his day job as an accountant long after the WSOP, to insure a rational
and measured transition to his current life as a professional player. And with
his day job now behind him, Chris predominantly plays lower buy-in tournaments
and cash games. It's not because of lack of ability, as Moneymaker continues
to prove he is no "one hit wonder." Chris demonstrated his prowess
on the felt in 2004 with a second place finish at the WPT's Shooting Star event
and nice money finishes in the WSOP Pot Limit Omaha event and the MAPC Pot Limit
Hold'em event, just to name a few. But Moneymaker continues to choose his battles
carefully, selecting opportunities that represent lower bankroll risk and steadier,
more predictable, returns. While Chris won poker's biggest battle, it is clear
he has his sights on winning the war.
Don't Become Poker Road Kill
If you are a talented player, you probably have a great game plan. You have
worked out strategies that exploit positional advantage, employ a solid understanding
of pot odds and tournament EV, and that capitalize on your ability to read opponents
like a book. This, and a gambler's heart, will go a long way to helping you
win an event. But it will take more than that to keep you in the game.
In the movie Bull Durham, Crash Davis warns the promising rookie, "Nuke"
LaLoosh, "You got a hall-of-fame arm, but you're pissing it away."
And if you haven't developed a poker battle plan that incorporates bankroll
management and variation of returns, you could be "pissing" away a
WSOP talent. So do yourself a favor. When you're putting together your New Year's
resolutions, think about one that says, "I promise to devote more time
and discipline to developing my poker battle plan." Maybe it's one of the
great ironies of poker. To win, we need to be savvy, daring, and calculating
gamblers. To play, we need to be mundane accountants. But if you want your best
shot at winning the poker war, you will have to master both of these seemingly
diverse skills.
I wish you all a long and healthy poker life.
Some reading to help you get started:
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This article was published at an earlier date on PokerPages.com and is being rerun due to popular demand.
