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2002 World Series of Poker:
Opening Odds, Part I
By Nolan Dalla
(All Rights Reserved)

It's really hard to stay focused for five long days and not make a mistake. Players wait a whole year for the World Series to start, then midway through -- they want to get it over with. Many players self-destruct right in front of your eyes. They lose sight of the big picture.

-- Former World Champion

Introduction

The main event of the 33rd annual World Series of Poker starts on May 20th, 2002. The only thing certain about posting odds on poker's world championship is that debate will ensue. It seems that everyone has an opinion as to which players should be the favorites. Every year since 1998, I have selected players who (I believe) have earned the right to be favored in the main event.

To help me with this task, I've called upon the collective wisdom of several of the world's top tournament players -- particularly no-limit players with many years of experience in major events. As agreed in advance (and to create an honest evaluation), members of the Odds Committee shall remain anonymous. The result of our collaboration is this feature -- the "2002 World Series of Poker -- Opening Odds."

What Determines the Odds?

The theoretical chance of any player winning the world championship is about 599-1 (based on 600 entries). But to Abe Lincoln's chagrin, all poker players are not created equal. Some players have established track records, while others are new to the pressure of the World Series. Aside from selecting the players that belong in the top 100, the most difficult question is -- what are the true odds of a favorite to win?

In the past, I have installed favorites at 60-1 (in 1998) up to 90-1 (in 2001). But those numbers no longer accurately reflect how highly competitive the main event has become. In fact, favorites are probably no better than about five times as likely to win as the average player (and even that may be too high an estimate). This year, odds on favorites have been adjusted to 125 -1. Several factors were considered when making these odds:

Previous WSOP experience and performance
Tournament record in recent years/months
No-limit hold'em (and pot-limit hold'em) reputation and performance
Previous odds lists (1998-2001) with adjustments
Opinions of six widely-respected poker players who comprised the "Odds Committee"

This year, 110 players are listed. The 99 top favorites have odds ranging from 125-1 up to 275-1. There are 11 "darkhorses" at 300-1 odds. To make the list of favorites, as least two of the Odds Committee members had to include the player in the Top 100. I could have added more darkhorses, but in the interest of space, the final list was limited to the players who were most frequently cited by their peers.

Odds to Win the 2002 World Series of Poker

(Note: Nolan Dalla's comments about each player are followed by a direct quote by one or more of the Odds Committee members.)

125-1 T.J. Cloutier -- Over 50 major tournament wins, more than any player in history. Won the $10,000 no-limit holdem championship at the Diamond Jim Brady three consecutive years. Four WSOP bracelets and four final tables in the main event -- including fifth (1988), third (1998), and two seconds (1985 and 2000). The second leading all-time WSOP money winner with nearly $3 million in earnings. No question, Cloutier remains the co-favorite to win the only title that has eluded him thus far in his illustrious career.

Cloutier admits to having "second-it is," having finished second the last six times or so he got down to heads-up in tournament. Because of that, there's lot's of pressure on him to not just place -- but to win.

125-1 Erik Seidel -- Ninth on the all-time World Series money list, with five bracelets. Made the WSOP final table twice -- finishing fourth (1999) and second (1987). One of the best no-limit players in the world, and if that's not enough, he's on top of his game right now. Seidel won the $3,000 no-limit event last year, and finished second in the championship event at the World Poker Open in January.

The best bet in the house -- bar none. Most people who know poker would take 125-1 on this guy any given day.

130-1 Dave "Devilfish" Ulliott -- Pot-limit and no-limit specialist from England. Without doubt, one of the best no-limit tournament players in the world today, and easily the top European seed. Won the pot-limit event at the 1997 WSOP. Won the inaugural Late Night Poker tournament telecast (UK) and several majors in Europe.

Well known for his creativity and playmaking capabilities. Has some "star" power that will also help him get some extra chips through bluffs.

130-1 Phil Hellmuth, Jr. -- 1989 World Champion. Seven WSOP bracelets in the last 13 years (all in holdem events). Finished fifth last year. Few players are more interesting to watch at a poker table than Hellmuth and when it comes to holdem, he is clearly in a league of his own. Only flaw in his game, some say, is his "steam" factor. Still, Hellmuth belongs as one of the favorites in any no-limit tournament.

If the final table has any opponent who makes him uncomfortable, he can't win. But if he stays in control of his emotions, he's one of the best.

130-1 John Juanda -- Enjoyed incredible tournament success the last five years, particularly in holdem events. Finished second at last year's United States Poker Championships. Won the 2001 World Poker Open. One of the very best no-limit tournament players for sure with unanimous peer respect.

Had a huge year in 2001. Expect to see more of the same this year. Deserved "Player of the Year" honors last year, but just missed.

130-1 Johnny Chan -- "The Orient Express" is one of the greatest no-limit players of all time. Two-time world champion (1987 and 1988) Runner-up in 1989, and finished 7th in 1992. Six bracelets and third on the all-time World Series money list with $2.5 million.

The only question about Chan is -- having made millions of dollars from his business investments, how much of that old fire still burns inside him?

135-1 Huck Seed -- By any measure, one of the top no-limit holdem players in the world. The former world champion made two final tables -- winning in 1996 and 6th in 1999. Seed, when playing his best is great. However -- plagued by inconsistent lately.

Nobody knows which Huck is going to show up. The "A" Huck is probably the co-favorite; but the "D" Huck is closer to 600-1.

135-1 David Chiu -- Won the Tournament of Champions in 1999. Finished 10th in the main event in 1996. Three WSOP bracelets. Revered for his great "reading" skills. Probably the best limit holdem tournament player in the world. Has a great mind when it comes to the game of poker.

Who will ever forget about his laying down K-K against A-A (pre-flop) when he won the TOC?

140-1 Daniel Negreanu -- Won the $3000 pot-limit holdem event in 1998. After winning the United States Poker Championship in 1999, Negreanu had off-years in 2000 and 2001 (by his standards). To his credit, "The Kid" has been coming on strong recently, winning two tournaments and running away with the "Best All Around Player" award at the LA Poker Open. He's clearly got the momentum on his side. Finished 11th last year, which should make him even hungrier this time around.

Daniel is a great finisher. He doesn't get to the final table often, but the times that he gets there, he often wins it all. Clearly belongs in the top ten.

140-1 Dewey Tomko -- His best game is lowball. Made it into the money several times, including a second place finish twice -- last year and in 1982. After last year's incredible performance, it's clear he has what it takes to win it all.

Went out with aces on the last hand in 2001. Had those aces held up, we might be calling Mr. Tomko the defending champion.

140-1 Scotty Nguyen --1998 World Champion. Some debate if no-limit is his best game, but it's hard to argue with his results in the most prestigious events. One of the hottest tournament players in the world today with a dynamic style all his own. Won the $5000 Omaha high-low event last year -- his third gold bracelet.

No limit is not his best game, but he's got the right swagger for tournament play and he always seems to play his best poker at the World Series.

140-1 Hieu "Tony" Ma -- One of tournament poker's best overall players, Ma was 1999 "Player of the Year." Most peers rank him with the best, but his odds are decreased slightly because he's been having a bad run lately.

He's got lots of heart and can never be counted out. A top-notch player.

145-1 Allen Cunningham -- Has the style of game that usually does well at the WSOP. Young and brilliant, he 's been called the "Tiger Woods of poker." Despite his young age, he knows as much about no limit holdem as any man alive. He got down late in the tournament last year, but got unlucky with A-J against A-7. Otherwise, he might have made the final table and would have been a co-favorite.

Allen is the best player of them all. Live-action, tournaments, no steam -- doesn't miss a thing. Can be terribly creative or very straight forward. Impossible to put on a hand.

145-1 Phil Ivey -- Excellent pot-limit record, now near the top of his game. One of the best of the young guns. Has improved his no-limit game dramatically the last two years or so due to a lot of hard work and his close associations with other top players.

Nothing scares him...young and very sharp...Ivey is the real deal...

145-1 Chris Bjorin -- No-limit and pot-limit specialist from London. Finished 9th in the 1997 main event. Won two WSOP bracelets, including the $3,000 no-limit event in 2000. One of the very few Europeans who specializes in tournaments. Knows when to change gears. Made the money in last year's main event.

Many observers might be surprised to know how many times Chris has made the money in the main event (7 out of 13 years). He also just finished third in the LA Classic championship.

145-1 Humberto Brenes -- He blasted through the field in the $10,000 championship event at the World Poker Open and played brilliantly all four days. If he plays at the same level at the WSOP he's one of the favorites. Made final table in 1995.

Perhaps because he lives in Costa Rica and he's not quite as well known as some other top players, Brenes has never received the credit he's due. He can win this event!.

150-1 Barry Shulman -- Won three no-limit holdem events in 2000. Finished 7th in main event at 2001 World Poker Open. Also, won the WSOP stud eight or better event last year. Shulman is widely regarded as is the most improved player on the tournament circuit in the last 12 months. Who can argue with his recent success?

Count me as a believer -- Barry is capable of playing excellent no-limit poker and should be listed much higher than last year. He will be one of the top 20 players in the field.

150-1 Dan Harrington -- "Action Dan" won two no-limit events at the 1995 World Series, including the main event. Also won the European championship that same year, and the $5,000 no-limit tourney at the Four Queens in 1996. Odds are decreased only because he hasn't been playing many tournaments lately, so his game might be a little off.
Not sure of his motivation to win (see Chan). Might not be 'hungry' anymore -- and that's what it takes to be the champion.

150-1 Toto Leonidas -- Made many no-limit final tables. Known for skillfully playing his blinds, and has become one of the best tournament players around over the past year. Pounces on every opportunity to accumulate chips.

Very hot lately. Playing high stakes with much success and can easily accumulate chips. A tremendous threat.

155-1 Ted Forrest -- Known as poker's smartest "businessman," Forrest definitely has the skill to win a world championship. However, he's not had much of an impact in tournaments in recent years, although he did win three WSOP bracelets all in the same year (1993). He seems much more interested in the high-limit cash games and pays less attention to actual World Series events.

Has one of the greatest minds in poker. Ted is the most successful cash game player today, and is well known for making some of the most brilliant plays in poker.

155-1 "Syracuse" Chris Tsiprailidis -- Proven tournament results in recent years with a bracelet in at the 2000 World Series for limit holdem. Made final table last year at United States Poker Championship.

Another excellent player who's been running bad recently. But he'll be fine, and holdem is his best game.

160-1 Surinder Sunar -- Well-known in no-limit circles as a top player. Won the pot-limit event at the Carnivale of Poker in 1998. Second in USPC main event in 1996. One of the very few players who succeeds at both live and tournament play.

As good a pot limit/no limit player as any. He will handle the pressure well if he's at the final table.

165-1 Jennifer Harman -- Won the no-limit deuce-to-seven event at the 2000 WSOP, having never played the game before. Strong high-limit player. She can hold her own with the big boys and deserves to be ranked.

Is hands down the best female player in the world, and is taking this years WSOP very seriously. Reads people well, and is a very good student of the game.

165-1 Mike Laing -- When poker's "Clown Prince" is at the top of his game, he deserves consideration as one of the favorites. Laing has made the money in five of the last six major events ($5000 buy-in or higher) he's played -- and he was chip leader at the final table in three of those events! Won the World Poker Challenge in 2001 Highest WSOP finish was 11th in 1998. In a one-day event, Laing might be an outright favorite, but in a five-day event can he hold it together for that long? No doubt, Laing's results have been as good or better than anyone else in the world in these main events.

Best quote -- If Mike Laing is drinkin' and broke, I like his chances.

165-1 Steve Zolotow -- A very successful and gifted high stakes player, Zolotow recently decided to play more tournaments. Some thought he couldn't do it -- but he's had great results. Won the pot limit holdem event last year and won an event at the World Poker Open in January.

When Steve was heads up in the pot-limit event last year, his opponent did everything possible to get under Steve's skin, but couldn't. When I saw that, I realized he could win the big one.

165-1 Howard Lederer -- One of poker's best high-stakes players. Highest finish was 5th in 1987. Also won his first WSOP bracelet in 2001.

They don't call him "The Professor" of poker for nothing. He uses very scientifically proven approach to his game. But when it comes to no-limit holdem, you've got to have "feels." Wouldn't be surprised to see him take his game to a different level to win the main event.

170-1 Freddy Deeb -- Outstanding high-limit player. Led the Poker Million after the first day. Great stamina. Very unpredictable.

Freddy has always been able to amass big chips in this event, and that should count for something. He just needs to gamble a little less later on.

170-1 David Pham -- "The Dragon" was the 2000 "Player of the Year." An excellent all around tournament player and no limit is one of his best games. Made the money last year in main event and won the S.H.O.E event at the 2001 WSOP.

Pham will be playing his heart out to win. One drawback -- seems to do better in shorter tournaments.

170-1 Carlos Mortensen -- 2001 World Champion. The defending champ can be both brilliant and reckless, the man knows absolutely no fear. Very reminiscent of the same style Noel Furlong used to win in 1999. If he gets a few hands at the right moments, he's practically unstoppable. But, he's also got a target on his back this year and many players now know his style.

I believe Carlos can repeat. But I also won't be surprised if he's gone in the first hour.

170-1 Mickey Appleman -- Finished 9th in 2000. Lots of World Series experience, but plays few tournaments today and may not know his opponents as in year's past. Specializes in limit poker. Still, a serous threat with a great poker mind.

Mickey can play no-limit holdem as well as most of the top players. But he's now involved in big sports betting action -- so poker is no longer his first priority.

175-1 "Miami" John Cernuto -- Great run in tournaments the last five years. Won the $2000 no-limit event at the 1997 WSOP. One of the best all-around tournament players -- although no-limit is not his best game. Had good results last year, by playing a more aggressive style.

He finished fourth in last year's TOC, losing a monster pot to Scotty Nguyen with pocket aces vs. tens (Scotty hit a ten at the river.) His no-limit game is improving.

175-1 Noel Furlong -- His super-aggressive style won the 1999 world championship. Also finished 6th in 1989. Known for making some bizarre plays according to some observers, which can either mean an early bust-out or another run at the final table. One detractor said, "can only win if he gets hit with the deck."

One thing about Noel. He won't be playing for second-place and won't be making any deals. His mission is to get another championship.

175-1 Ben Roberts -- Perhaps Europe's best live-action player. He's only beginning to be recognized in the U.S. Based in London, Roberts finished 6th in 1998. Only question is -- not much tournament experience. Still, his raw talents alone should put him in.

Talk to anyone. Most players love Ben's game. However, I'm not sure he's aggressive enough to be a favorite. Remains to be seen how well he would handle a final table.

175-1 Kevin Song -- Impressive track record in NLHE tournaments. Won two events at the 2000 United States Poker Championships. Made the money last year.

He has heart and is fearless. However, also prone to making mistakes.. One of his mistakes is "getting married to a hand." Also, Song hasn't been playing for better part of year. Recently returned to poker during Commerce tourney.

175-1 Jay Heimowitz -- Six World Series bracelets, including a win in the $5000 limit holdem event in 2000 and the Seniors event in 2001. Lots of WSOP experience in the main event including two final tables -- third (1980) and sixth (1981).

Jay really wants it this year. He knows he wont have the stamina for that many more years. Will be focused to win in 2002.

180-1 Mike Matusow -- Winner of a WSOP bracelet (no-limit holdem 1999), and a win at the 2000 Carinvale of Poker. Also won the $1000 no-limit event at the 2000 USPC. Finished sixth last year in main event. Extremely aggressive with chips.

Mike's got "(expletive deleted)" and is not afraid to make big time plays when he has to. I think he's got just the right style to win the championship.

180-1 Berry Johnston -- 1986 World Champion. Made four final tables -- including third (1982 and 1985), and fifth (1990). Won the razz event last year. Finished in the money in a record 39 WSOP events in his lifetime.

One of the most consistent tournament players of all time. One of the best bets to last long in the tournament.

180-1 Chris Bigler -- From Switzerland, finished fifth in the 1999 main event. Won the $1,000 limit holdem event at the 2000 World Poker Challenge. One of the top European tournament specialists. No limit is his best game.

Plays big stack and small stack equally well. Playing great at the moment. Starting to make good lay-downs. Also reads opponents well and makes some extraordinary calls.

180-1 Russ Hamilton -- 1994 World Champion. Hasn't played many tournaments recently. Not sure what affect the lay-off will have on his game. If he gets chips after two days, he'll be tough.

Russ definitely has the experience and knows how to get there. But hasn't played tournaments lately and that might hurt his chances.

180-1 Randy Holland -- Two no-limit wins in 2000 and two fourth-place finishes in the two biggest events at the World Poker Challenge Also won the stud-eight or better event at the 2000 World Series. Finished 12th in the main event in 1999. He's got both the talent and discipline to last five days.

One of the most under-rated tournament players in the world today.

180-1 Donn O'Dea -- Highest finish was 9th in 1991. Won the pot-limit event at the 2000 Carnivale of Poker. One of Europe's best players with solid tournament results.

If you were choosing a player to make the money, he should be a top choice. But can he win?

180-1 Padraig Parkinson -- From Ireland, Parkinson finished third in 1999. Very aggressive with chips.

Padraig has already done well in this event, and many other no limit tourneys in Europe. Very aggressive player.

180-1 Asher Derai -- From Israel, has done very well on the European circuit in recent years -- including impressive results at the Euro Finals of Poker in Paris and Master Classics in Amsterdam.

Has a good understanding of tournament concepts and has enjoyed much success in big no limit tournaments. Outstanding reads, capable of making big lay-downs.

185-1 Annie Duke -- Ranks at the top of the all-time ladies money-winner list. Lots of hours in the main event, especially in recent years. Solid high-limit player. Finished 10th in the 2000 World Series.

Arguably the first or second best female poker player in the world today (or certainly a co-favorite with Jennifer Harman). A very successful high-limit player who gets respect.

190-1 Bobby Hoff -- Runner-up in 1979. Hoff is still feared and respected for his no-limit skill and his depth of experience.

Considered by many as one of the greatest holdem players of all time. Despite his age, he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down.

190-1 Dewey Weum -- Finished 4th in 1998. One of the "best bets" to come close and make the money, but some observers express doubts he can win. Dewey is a capable player, and he definitely has the experience to make the final table. Remains to be seen if he can get the top prize.

Outstanding pot size manipulation skills. As patient as a saint. Nothing takes him off his game.

190-1 John Bonetti -- Made the money a staggering two-thirds of the WSOP main events he's entered since 1985. Finished third twice -- in 1994 and 1996, and 8th in 1990. Always goes for the win with an aggressive style. Holds four WSOP bracelets. Had an off-year in 2001, but is still one of the best at no-limit.

Not as good as he once was. But can still be dangerous if he gets a hold on some chips. Just won the $500 pot limit Omaha at the Commerce. Is he back in form?

200-1 Men "the Master" Nguyen -- Staggering tournament success over the past 13 years, including over 40 major tournament wins. Four WSOP bracelets. "Player of the Year" twice -- in 1997 and 2001. Main event has not been good to "the Master" however, as he's made only one final table appearance -- fourth in 1996.

An excellent tournament player, but no limit is not his best game.

200-1 Amir Vahedi When Vahedi runs hot, there's no stopping him. Consider his run at last year's Orleans Open and TOC. First, he defeated 587 players to win one tournament, came back two days later finishing 8th out of 429 in limit holdem, followed with 5th place in Omaha/8, then won an evening event, and capped off his incredible week by winning the no-limit holdem main event.

If he gets hot, look out!

200-1 Jack Fox -- A Reno-based attorney turned poker pro, Fox is a no -limit specialist who has won big tourneys at the Commerce, the Bike, and Reno Hilton.

Has a lot of heart, and clearly belongs as a serious threat

200-1 Tom Hufnagle -- Very talented all-around player. Won WSOP gold bracelet in 1999. Seems way overdue for a strong run in the main event after much tournament success elsewhere.

Tommy has taken some bad beats in the main event, but if he catches a few cards and gets chips, he's very dangerous.

200-1 Ian Dobson -- Finished third in the Poker Million, and one of the best no-limit tournament players in Europe.

Ian has enjoyed success in multiple day events before (Poker Million, USPC, etc.). Longer tournaments suit his style.

210-1 Paul Ladanyi -- Finished 11th in 1996. Known as being somewhat reckless with chips in tournament play -- which means he can be very dangerous to play against, or self-destructive depending on key hands. Some say he should be in the 150-1 range. Others say 250-1. We'll compromise and put him here.

Paul is a much better limit player Super aggressive style gives him a chance if he can stay out of trouble.

210-1 Mike Magee -- Interesting player to watch from Ireland,. Accumulated over $200,000 early in the 1998 main event, and finished on the bubble (28th). Plays big stack extremely well, and has more than one gears to his game. Made the money last year.

Magee has won more tournaments than anyone in Europe over the years. He also has "heart" - and tons of it. On the other hand, he still has to prove he can hold together for five days.

210-1 Jim Bechtel -- 1993 World Champion. Only plays no-limit (tournaments and live-action) and enters relatively few events. Also finished 6th in 1988. 23rd last year. Quiet, unassuming....and very dangerous.