Playing the Scare Card on the River

by Bryan Devonshire

Very often when sitting in a limit hold'em game I will see a pattern. Several players see a flop. Everybody checks to the last position, who bets. One player calls the flop and turn. The river brings a third flush card, or pairs the board, or brings an over-card, and it goes check-check. The first player shows down middle pair, and the second player wins with top pair.

The worst part about all this? The player in position think he played perfectly.

NO!

Repeat after me: "I will bet the scare card unless there is a good reason not to."

Limit Hold'em is beaten primarily on the river. Think about that for a moment - it's a concept that I have never heard discussed or read anywhere before. The river is one of two main big betting rounds. The hands are completely defined on the river, where players miss more value than any other street. On the river, the hands are black and white, and you are either winning or losing, period. Except for unusual circumstances, it is the only street on which you get 100% equity on a value bet.

Let me explain. On the flop or turn, often times the decisions that players have to make are arbitrary. If there are ten bets in the pot and your opponent has a gutshot straight draw, it really doesn't matter over the long run whether your opponent calls or not. It's very marginal. Also, on all other streets your hand is usually still vulnerable. If you value bet the turn as a 4-1 favorite, you're getting eighty cents on the dollar for your bet. Now granted, limit hold'em is won and lost over marginal decisions, but the point I'm trying to make is that on the river is when the biggest decisions occur, because your equity is the full 100% of your bet. Whether you should bet or not is more absolute on the river than on any other street.

So, back to our previous example, but this time let's give you some cards. You have QJo, flop J72 two clubs. Five players saw the flop, you bet, and get called by one of the early position players. There are now 3.5 big bets in the pot. The turn is an offsuit 5. Opponent checks, you bet, and are called. The river comes the trey of clubs. Your opponent checks, now what?

This is a spot where I will often see players check because they are afraid of getting check-raised. Who cares if you get check-raised! Throw your hand in the muck if your opponent does! I mean really... who is ever bluffing in this spot?

That one was easy. Lets say that instead of the trey of clubs on the river you see the king of clubs. This is where things get fun. This one comes down much more to reads than the previous example, which should be an auto-bet. Here are some things to consider:

Does your opponent like to check-raise?

Did you put your opponent on the flush draw or not before the river card?

What was your opponents reaction to the river card?

How good is your opponent?

If your opponent likes to check-raise then you must make your decision based solely on your read. You must decide the likelihood of getting check-raised vs. getting paid off. If your opponent is going to check-raise more often than call you with a worse hand, checking is the better play. Otherwise, FIRE!

Did you have your opponent on the flush draw in the first place? If not, there's no reason to put him on it now. If you did, what was your opponents physical reaction to the river card? You should always be watching your opponents react to the river card rather than watching the river card, or any street for that matter. The reaction will only be there for a split second while the card will be there as long as you need it.

Lastly, good opponents tend to lead with their made draws rather than attempt a check-raise. If your opponent is skilled and checks the river card, he most likely does not have what you are afraid of. Fire away.

Lastly, what do we do when out of position? All the considerations previously outlined are in play, but this time we also must factor in value from bluff-induction. Should you try to get value from the scare card on the river, or should you try to get value using the "value-check?" Often times you will find yourself with a hand that will only get called by a better one. In these spots it is better to check and try to get your opponent to take a stab at the pot, and then call their bet. Deciding if and when to do this is one of the most difficult aspects of the game because it relates directly to your hand-reading ability and being able to put your opponent on a range of hands.

So, in limit hold'em, when a scare card comes on the river, your first instinct should be to fire a bet. Most players freeze up in the face of scare cards. Remember, your opponents are afraid of that card too! Thus, you are only going to get raised if the scare card actually gave them a hand. It is only in the very rare case that you will be bluff-raised in these spots. Good reasons not to fire at a scare card are only if your read has them on hitting that hand precisely or if you feel that they may fire a bluff if you check.

Don't bet when:

You actually read them for that hand.

In position, it is more likely to be check-raised than called and your hand is good.

Out of position, it is more likely for them to bluff than to call you with a worse hand.

Other than those three reasons, you should be going to value-town and patting yourself on the back when they call you with third pair.

Peace and good luck in Value Town,

Devo

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