Be Confident to Win, or be Confident You'll Lose
by Bryan Devonshire

Once again I am at a point in my poker career where my confidence in the game is shot. All the records of wins, all the history of tough times, and all the experiences of trial and tribulation within the fluctuation of the game do nothing to alleviate the fear that maybe I am not good enough, maybe I'll go broke, and maybe I'll go broke forever.

These fears are very real when you play poker with any bid of seriousness. They are very natural, very dominant, and crucial to dealing with to succeed in the long term.

The patterns usually go like this. You'll take a bad beat, take four more, have a losing day, come back, and do it all again. You'll have a series of unfortunate events happen to you during tournament play. Now, as much as we do not believe in superstitions, our mind cannot help but be conditioned by these recent results, and our play will be affected. The most common symptom is the lack of aggression that comes with a lack of confidence. Bets and raises will be missed and affect three things. We will miss bets for value, making your bottom line lower than it should be. We will miss bets for aggression that will get opponents off of better hands, also lowering our bottom line. And possibly most problematic, we will miss bets for protection, worse hands will catch up to us, and we will suffer another "bad beat", and one that should have been avoided.

This is when things start getting ugly. Since we are getting sucked out on more now than we should have been, even on an unlucky streak, we lose more confidence, miss more bets, and the downward spiral will continue.

If we are not fortunate enough to run well before things are too late, then we will start to realize that we are playing badly. This hit me really hard recently. I saw the bad plays that I was making, saw my recent results, and then believed that I had never played well, and was just fortunate enough to run good over the past several years.

It's an ugly cycle, one that must be controlled if long term success is to be achieved.

How do you know you're losing confidence? Pretty easy. If you're not excited to go crush a game, then you have lost your confidence. You must not be afraid of losing.

To rebuild your confidence, you must first drop limits to a point where the money is insignificant, but still high enough to retain your interest. You must also play in a game that you know is whiffle ball. A game that you find easy to win at. I recently chose 2-5 NL because I can still win or lose over a thousand, but the game is generally pretty easy to play. If I was choosing several months ago, I would have found myself in 15-30 limit, or perhaps the 20-40 mix game. It all depends on what you find the easiest to beat and what game you are most confident at.

Then, put in the hours. Grind, grind, grind. Play twice as tight as you usual do. Do whatever you can do to ensure a win while minimizing your fluctuation. Remember that right now this style of playing is not maximizing your EV, but your purpose is to maximize your lifetime EV, and therefore this exercise is in fact positive EV.

Do not even think of moving back up after a win or two. Don't move up unless your bankroll is not comfortable for the next level, or the level that you were previously playing. If you return when you get to a base level and lose, you will be damaged much more than you should be. Let your psychology return to the point that you know you are better than the game, knowing that you not only should be playing at a higher game but that you have the bankroll and confidence to do so.

Bottom line is this: if you are losing confidence, you're probably also losing your bankroll in the process. The more you are losing value in your bets the more likely it is that that you are turning into a loser in the game you play. I've seen many players find themselves in this stage and decide that they need to play higher, where they are greater losers, and eventually find themselves going broke. This also has a strong chance of happening if you stay at the limits you are at. If you go broke, you cannot play anymore. If you're professional, you will not be receiving a paycheck. If you're amateur, your paychecks will get dinged, and your confidence will still be damaged when you return to the game.

Remember that you must know that you are one of the best, if not the best, players in any game that you sit in, and you must have the bankroll to not play with scared money in any game that you are playing in. Play to win and re-build that confidence. The game will still be there when you are ready to move back up.

Peace and good luck,

Devo

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About the Author:
Bryan Devonshire is a rising star on the professional circuit. Since he took second place in the first event of the 2006 World Series of Poker, he has cashed in four major tournaments, including a first place finish at the Commerce Casino. Bryan is also a featured blogger on PokerPages.com.