Poker Articles

The Bet You Can't Call
By Andy Glazer

Most hold 'em players with any kind of experience have learned that "generally" when you are heads-up, a pair, any pair, is about an 11-10 favorite over two overcards. This means, to most players, that when you know you're in a heads-up situation, and you know your opponent has A-K, you're making a good play to call with a hand like 2-2.

There are a few problems with this oversimplified thought process.

First, "generally" a pair is a favorite against two overcards. But the 11-10 figure isn't universal. Some pairs are much bigger favorites than others. For example, two queens are much better than 11-10 against A-K (actually closer to 13-10 than 11-10), because holding the two queens means it's very difficult for the A-K owner to make a straight, and the straights are part of an overcards "outs" against a pair.

Similarly, if your pair of eights is up against A-9, not only are you facing two gapped cards that will have to get very lucky to make a straight, but once again, you are holding two of the cards that often will be needed to get luckily.

Before I leave this relatively less important math behind, just remember that those two deuces aren't even a favorite against all two overcards. J-10 suited makes enough straights and flushes that it's a favorite over 2-2.

So what all this means is, you shouldn't always go gaga when you're heads up and have a pair, and you shouldn't always (when you think you're a much better player) avoid a "mere" 11-10 edge, because your edge might be a lot more than that.

All of this math pales in comparison to some more important strategic considerations, though. Small pairs can be terrific hands in hold 'em after the flop, if you've flopped a set. It seems like such hands win a lot of big no-limit tournaments. And the small pairs aren't bad hands to bet with in heads-up, no-limit situations, because first of all, you might not have to hold the best hand to win. A lot of times, your bet will win the pot for you right there. If it doesn't, and someone with A-K calls your pair of fives, well, you missed your first chance to win (the bet), but are certainly live for the second part. Even taking the aggressive approach and betting, you normally shouldn't bet your whole stack. A solid bet will claim the pot a lot. If you bet a third of your chips, and someone comes over the top of you, do you really want to call with 3-3, where you're a tiny favorite over many hands and a huge underdog to most of the hands someone will come over the top of you with?

But CALLING with these little pairs, especially all-in in no-limit events, is just plain suicide. True, a lot of the time, when you call with 3-3, you'll find yourself having called someone with A-K, and you'll be a small favorite. But you're still really gambling: if you fancy yourself as any kind of good player, you don't really want to be playing a lot of 50-50 hands.

Most importantly, even though a lot of times when you call with your 3-3 you will be up against two overcards, there will be a lot of times when you are up against a higher pair, and then you are really in the soup. Holding 3-3 against someone with 4-4, you're a 4.5-1 dog.

Do you see how much worse calling with a little pair is than betting with it? When you bet with it, you might win with your bet, even if someone has something like 8-8. When you call with it, you MUST finish with the winning hand to win the pot, and you're in a position where probably 2/3 of the time you're a very small favorite, and 1/3 of the time you're a huge underdog. That makes the all-in call with your little pair a truly terrible play.

Your best move with little pairs is a decent sized offensive bet that might claim the pot. If it doesn't, and you don't get raised, flop a set or get the heck out, unless you have the player-reading skills of a Johnny Chan. But if you had the player-reading skills of Johnny Chan, you wouldn't be reading this article.