Player's Stories

Taking Calculated Risks
By Matthew Hilger
(All Rights Reserved)

I don't get to play as many live tournaments as I would like but am going to try and make an effort to play more big tournaments over the coming year. It won't be easy as I am finishing a new book, working hard on The Poker Tutor at my website, and my wife is expecting in December. But I am trying hard to fit some tournaments into my schedule.

Last week I took a trip to Tunica as a "warm-up" for some of the larger tournaments I plan on playing. It is important to keep sharp as it is difficult competing against the world's best when they are playing on a consistent basis. I looked at the Tunica trip as a place to experiment. My thinking is that I would rather make a mistake in a "small" tournament with a buy-in of $500-$2000 than a major tournament with a $10,000 buy-in.

In the $1000 no-limit event I found myself with an above average stack with 15 players remaining. I had played with at least half the remaining opponents the day before. While waiting for play to commence on Day 2, I felt like there were only 5-6 players who had a legitimate chance of winning. First place would pay $100K with about $3K going out to 15th. This was a great opportunity for a big payday. Note that my entire goal was to win the tournament and at no point did I ever think of just improving my position.

With 11 people left in the tournament, I decided to risk my tournament life against a player who I felt was most likely bluffing. He was a very strong player and the way the hand played out lent itself to a good bluff on his part. If his hand was just mediocre, I was certain my reraise would get him to fold. Of course, there was also a possibility that he had hit a real hand and I would be in big danger. I'm not going to discuss the hand itself but rather some of the things I considered and should have considered.

My first instinct was that my opponent was bluffing. He knew that I mostly likely didn't hit the flop and was trying to take me off my hand. I thought, "I can take this pot away from him with a reraise". But then I said to myself, "What if I am wrong? What if he has hit a big hand?" There weren't very many big hands he could have been holding but it was a possibility. Most of the time I would be right and would take down a nice size pot. A few times I would run into a monster and my tournament life would be over. I decided this was a calculated risk I was willing to take.

The first problem in my analysis was that I only considered the one particular hand that I was playing at the time. In a tournament you have a limited amount of chips. If I go broke I am finished. In a cash game, every decision should be made on the expectation of a particular hand. In a tournament there are other factors to consider.

In this particular tournament, I had a big advantage over most of the remaining opponents. Most of them were playing just to cash a little higher. At least half of them would need to be knocked over by the deck in order to win. This was an ideal situation for me.

Given the situation, I didn't need to take a calculated risk. I didn't need to gamble in order to win, even if my gamble had a slightly positive expectation. I would be taking more than my fair share of blinds and would make better decisions after the flop than my opponents. Every hand I played against these opponents was positive expectation for me. I didn't need to take a calculated risk when I had so many other positive opportunities awaiting me. Of course, my calculated risk turned into a disaster. My opponent turned over a set and I was drawing practically dead to a backdoor draw.

For fun, let's change the situation a little. Now instead of a weak field, Daniel Negreanu, Erick Lindgren, Marcel Luske, and Phil Ivey are still remaining in the tournament. This is a completely different situation. I no longer have the advantage in the tournament. Now I ought to be more willing to take calculated risks. This doesn't mean throwing my money away on a prayer, but simply takings risks when the reward is right. I won't be able to outplay them so I have to be willing to go to battle when maybe the situation isn't ideal.

It was a long trip home from Tunica after my 11th place finish. I had plenty of time to think about my play and my decisions. On the positive, I am happy that I followed my instincts (even though they were wrong). I'm also happy that I was willing to put everything on the line when it mattered. Finally, I learned a great lesson that hopefully I will never repeat. I need to be sure to make my decisions in the overall context of what I am risking and what is at stake. It is important to make calculated risks in poker, but it is even more important to make them at the right times.

"Matthew is author of Internet Texas Hold'em: Winning Strategies from an Internet Pro which can be found in the Poker Pages book store".