Player's Stories

Shorthanded Poker: Flop Play Part I
by Jason Pohl

We already know there are a lot of preflop steal attempts in short-handed poker. Inevitably, the big blind will frequently face a preflop raiser in a heads-up confrontation after every other player has folded. The big blind must defend a reasonable amount of the time or else is giving up some of his own profit. But what happens after the flop? Most preflop raisers will bet automatically on the flop heads-up (as they should). Some of the time, the big blind will hit nothing, believe the raiser has at least a piece of the flop, and can safely check-and-fold. Other times, the big blind may have little or nothing but may also infer that the raiser cannot have a quality hand either. And often, the big blind will hit the flop. Checking and folding the weakest hands is easy. Knowing what to do in other circumstances is not so clear. Should the big blind bet out, check-and-fold, check-raise the flop, or slowplay? In this article, we examine a few common settings a big blind will be forced to face in short-handed poker on the flop.

Scenario 1. The Strong Hand

When the big blind has flopped top two pair, a set, or trips, the main consideration is how to win the most money possible. The three examples below illustrate different "monster" flops, but with varying degrees of vulnerability.

Example 1. Big blind holds 5c 5h.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.

Example 2. Big blind holds Tc 9s.
Flop is 9d 9c 2c.

Example 3. Big blind holds Td 8d.
Flop is Th 8s 4c.

In a full ring game, any of these flops would be excellent, but not necessarily invulnerable. In a short-handed game, these hands are so powerful that a lone opponent is likely drawing dead or very, very thin. While it is possible the steal raiser has a higher set or a very good draw, supposing as much every time would be paranoia and unprofitable. On the other hand, even a strong hand has potential susceptibility.

I generally assume the preflop raiser will bet the flop after the big blind checks. With this assumption, the big blind must consider two important matters. First, should the big blind risk a free card by check-calling the flop and checking again on the turn? Second, if a slowplay is not in order, should the big blind bet out or check-raise the flop? By answering these two questions, we can expose the core arguments for any scenario where the big blind has flopped something worth playing to see the turn and/or river.

Free Cards

In short-handed poker, the difference between numerous winners and losers can be measured in damaging free cards. In any of the three scenarios above, there is a small chance the preflop raiser has outs. Flush or straight draws are possible, as well as overpairs or one pair holdings with overcard kickers; if the preflop raiser holds a good drawing hand, there is ample chance they will take a free card on the turn if available. In fact, one of the big blind's main concerns should be determining how their opponent reacts in exactly this situation: do they continue betting with a draw on the turn, or do they take the free card? Do they bet with nothing but overcards on the turn or give up the hand? Finally, will they bet if a scare card arrives on the turn but they still hold a decent hand (such as middle pair)? Against a fast opponent who constantly attacks on the flop and continues on the turn, it may be worthy to penalize their aggression with a turn check-raise. The big blind can earn as much as an extra big bet by slowplaying. However, most opponents will not be so excessively aggressive, especially on a dangerous flop like #2 or if a scare card hits on the turn. Every time the preflop raiser would have called bets on the turn and river but was able to check the turn and take a free card, the big blind loses three small bets.

Example 2a. Big blind holds Tc 9s. Button holds 8d 8c.
Flop is 9d 9c 2c.

In a scenario such as the one in Example 2a, it is completely reasonable that the button might decide to call down to the river, but may also check the turn to take a "free card." In other words, the 8d 8c may decide to try to induce a bluff on the river by checking the turn. This is a disastrous situation for the big blind. If the big blind check-raised on the flop, and the button called on the turn and river, the big blind earns 3 big bets post-flop. If the big blind bet out on the flop, and the button called down the whole way, the big blind earns 2.5 big bets. If the big blind check-called the flop, missed the turn bet, but earned a bet on the river, the big blind would earn only 1.5 big bets after the flop. By slowplaying trips, the big blind loses up to 1.5 big bets and allows the button to take a free card at a two-outer.

Based on all of the above factors, I advocate making a move on the flop against all but the most aggressive opposition. Most adversaries will not automatically give credit to the big blind for a strong hand, even when check-raised, especially if the big blind is check-raising a wide range of hands. The issue of free cards also becomes moot because the big blind has taken control of the hand on the flop. Finally, by making a move on the flop with a strong hand, other opportunities for semibluffs and bets with weaker hands become available without telegraphing a hand's relative strength. So, our conclusion is that even with the strongest hands, it is usually best not to slowplay. Next, we need to decide how the big blind should make its move. Is a check-raise best or should the big blind bet out on the flop? We shall see that the answer to this second question is far from simple.

Bet Out or Check-Raise?

Assuming the preflop raiser will automatically bet out on the flop when the big blind checks, there are two main considerations when holding a strong hand. First, will betting out earn more profit overall than check-raising on the flop? Second, how will betting out or check-raising fit into an overall strategy?

We can measure the most advantageous play by analyzing the results against different types of hands. By check-raising, the big blind earns at least one extra small bet anytime the preflop raiser has nothing. In other words, if the preflop raiser would fold to a bet or a check-raise, then we want them to make that bluff on the flop. The check-raise earns an extra bet.

Example 1a. Big blind holds 5c 5h. Button holds Kh 7h.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.

Let's give the button some credit and assume they are prepared to fold, considering their lack of outs.

• Betting out wins 4.5 small bets.
• Check-raising wins 5.5 small bets.

But what if the button would fold to a check-raise, but not a single bet, or vice versa? First, it should be clear that with virtually no outs, the big blind wants a call. So, if the big blind would call a check-raise but not a bet out, then the check-raise is even better than we evaluated before. In that case, the check-raise would earn 2 extra small bets on the flop and might result in a larger gain if the turn brings a K, 7, 6, or maybe even a 9 or 4.

If the button would fold to a check-raise but not a single bet, the advantage is not as huge, but still exists. The button's call on the flop earns no additional bets, but it is the potential that the button might call down on the turn and/or river that earns extra profit. The extra profit is offset a small bit because the button will actually win the pot about 3% of the time, but the call is still obviously a huge mistake. In conclusion, the big blind would need very strong assurances a check-raise would result in a fold (but not a bet out) to make betting out superior. Otherwise, it is unreasonable to risk the 5.5 small bets earned on the flop.

How do the results change if the preflop raiser has a playable hand that is still inferior to the big blind? If the preflop raiser has a weak draw, such as a gut straight, pair of overcards, or even small pair, then a check-raise remains the better play because it may give adequate odds to the opponent to call a second flop bet.

Example 1b. Big blind holds 5c 5h. Button holds Ad 2h.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.

A check-raise puts 7.5 small bets in the pot. The Ad 2h must feel vulnerable, but probably believes any Ace, 2, or running diamonds will be good for a win. Counting five outs (not including runner-runner backdoor draws), the preflop raiser is a 42:5 underdog, or about 8.4 to 1. A check-raise can actually marry the Ad 2h to the pot because the size appears to be large enough to attempt a suckout with implied odds. Of course, the button does not really have five outs in this instance. If aware of the big blind's strength, the button would fold quickly.

Example 1c. Big blind holds 5c 5h. Button holds Ah Kh.
Flop is 8d 5d 2c.

Once more, many opponents will count all six of their outs, figuring they are only a 41:6 ~ 7:1 underdog. With 7.5 small bets in the pot, the check-raise may actually help pull the opponent into the pot for a bad call.

Betting out does secure extra profit against a particular type of opponent. Specifically, there are some aggressive players who believe any player who would bet out rather than check-raise must have a weak hand or draw. They will match their assumption by raising hastily with as little as ace-high when they would have folded to a check-raise. These players are making a powerful raise if against opposition that does only bet out with weak hands or draws. However, when facing a solid hand, the raiser is throwing away money; our job is to make sure they are throwing away their money to us.

There is one final consideration. If we bet out with a strong hand, when will we check-raise on the flop? In other words, the big blind should not only check-raise with strong hands; it is too predictable. Yet, the big blind must make check-raising a tool in their game. If the big blind were to only check with the intention of folding, then the preflop raiser would have an easy bluffing opportunity and no fear of reprisal. More importantly, such predictability would only increase the preflop raiser's positional advantage.

The only real disaster occurs when the preflop raiser sniffs out the big blind's strength and lays down a strong holding such as top or middle pair because they were able to make a good read. It is for that reason that we must disguise our big hands and not play them uniquely from other holdings. Likewise, marginal hands that want the preflop raiser to fold cannot be played radically different.

Scenario 2. Vulnerable Pairs

There is a fundamental truth in short-handed poker. When only two opponents see a flop, there is a good chance neither player will make a hand (i.e. pair or better). If the big blind does make a pair, especially top pair, then it should be assumed that the big blind holds the best hand. However, even top pair is vulnerable. Let's look at a couple possibilities to illustrate whether the check-raise or bet out is preferable.

Example 4a. Big blind holds Jc Th. Button holds Jd 9d.
Flop is Td 8c 3c.

In this scenario, the button has a good draw. There is going to be action against a check-raise or a bet out on the flop. Many opponents would semibluff raise with the open-ended straight draw and position to gain a free card (I certainly would), and some opponents would also 3-bet on the flop to attempt to gain a free card (again, I would.) Either way, let's assume as the big blind, we would not reraise with our mediocre pair. Instead, we'd like to see the turn, where we can bet out again to put the button to the test.

• Betting out adds 4 small bets, for a total of 8.5 bets in the pot.
• Betting out wins an average of (.67 * 8.5 = 5.695) small bets/hand for a profit of 3.695 small bets/hand.
• Check-raising adds 6 small bets, for a total of 10.5 bets in the pot.
• Check-raising wins an average of (.67 * 10.5 = 7.035) small bets/hand for a profit of 4.035 small bets/hand.

In other words, check-raising earns extra profit because the big blind is still a favorite. Similar results would occur if the button only called, rather than raised. In fact, if the button held a lesser draw, the check-raise would yield still healthier profits.

Example 4b. Big blind holds Jc Th. Button holds Ad Kc.
Flop is Td 8c 3c.

Assuming the button would call either a bet or a check-raise, the big blind wants to check-raise, as the statistics indicate below.

• Betting out adds 2 small bets, for a total of 6.5 in the pot.
• Betting out wins an average of (.782 * 6.5 = 5.083) small bets/hand for a profit of 4.083 small bets/hand.
• Check-raising adds 4 small bets, for a total of 8.5 in the pot.
• Check-raising wins an average of (.782 * 8.5 = 6.647) small bets/hand for a profit of 4.647 small bets/hand.

So, when the big blind has a pair or better, the check-raise is superior against competition that will automatically bet on the flop, with a couple rare, but notable exceptions. But what if the big blind has a draw, medium pair, or just overcards? Does the strategy change when the big blind holds a more marginal hand? And what about bluffing? In Part II of this article, we answer those questions. Until then, let me know if you have any questions or comments for me.

You can email me at Jason@PokerPages.com. Good luck!