You Don't HAVE To Bet!

by Jim Woods

You're seated at a $1/$2 NL holdem table where the action has been moderate. You've limped in late position with suited 87 and no one raised. Five players see the J 3 4 flop. When the first three players check, you figure, "Hell, SOMEONE has to win this $10 pot," so you buckle your chinstrap and fire in ten bucks. Why?

You can think of LOTS of reasons, right? "That flop probably missed everyone. I have position on all but one player. My opponents may think that there are lots of hands containing a jack with which I might have limped. Even if I don't win the pot now, I'll probably scare out the only player behind me and then be in primo position for the rest of the hand. C'mon, Woodsie, you wuss -- I didn't come here to WATCH!"

In my humble opinion, none of those are good reasons. There are plenty of holdem flops and turns that DON'T warrant a bet. So someone exclaims "Pot for sale!" after a checkaround or two--who cares? I don't know about you, but I don't sit down at a poker table to watch, either. I want to go home a winner, and bets like the one above aren't usually in the winning formula.

Let's review. First, it's a $1/$2 game, so the odds are high that your bet will be called, even by people who didn't hit the flop. Picture, for example, a player with 65 offsuit--think he'll be too afraid to call you, even out of position? Further, suppose you make a pair of 7's on the turn. He'll check, and you'll bet because (a) you improved and (b) your testosterone (if you're a guy) won't allow you to show weakness after you bet the flop. Then he'll raise you or, worse yet, he'll smooth-call leaving you drawing dead--YIKES!

Second, there was no preflop raise, so you are facing the unspeakable horror of not one, but TWO unraised blinds! Those guys or gals could have ANYTHING...how do J4, J3, 43, A3, A4, 44, and 33 sound? Lots of $1/$2 players with "presto" or 66 will call a pot-sized bet at these limits, figuring you're just making a position bet which, after all, you are. Also, the absence of a preflop raise makes it less likely that your opponents are holding an ace, king, or queen, so it's more likely that this weakling flop hit at least one opponent, and maybe three.

Third, your bet is too big for someone who flopped a set or top two pairs, so it's more likely to be called than a $4 bet, for example. Fourth, you've put yourself in a tough position if, as is likely, you get no help from the turn card. The odds are that anyone who called your flop bet has a better hand.

Bottom line: Check, fold to any bet, and save your money for a real hand.

Here's another example. In $10/$20 limit holdem you are on the button with 98 and call a preflop raise. Four players see a J 7 8 flop and everyone else checks to you. You may be thinking, "They're all showing weakness. Anyone with an overcard pair would've bet, not wanting to give a free card to a straight draw. I have a pair AND a straight draw, so I should bet." Think again. One of the problems with limit poker is that it disguises the strength of your opponents' hands. The preflop raiser could have a big pocket pair, but the rules prevented her from raising any more than $10 preflop, given that no one re-raised. By the same token, who will you get out with a $10 bet into an $80 pot? Moreover, do you WANT to get anyone out? Your pair of eights is unlikely to be on top, so your real hope is a gutshot ten on the turn. Why not accept the free card, especially since turning a ten or another eight will probably put the preflop raiser on tilt if she is slowplaying AA or KK? How much more money will you make on future hands from an opponent like that? And how much will you save by not betting your gutshot draws that DON'T pan out (which will happen most of the time)?

Finally, some flops have "NO ACTION" written all over them, and here's one I recently witnessed in the real world. You're playing $2/$5 NL holdem and no one raises or folds preflop. Yes, ma'am, that's correct...it's a family pot, so TEN players see the QQQ flop. The player under the gun (let's call him "Tarzan") now regrets not raising preflop with pocket tens, but he bets $25 into the $50 pot, apparently to "get some information." Two players call. (Cue the music from "Jaws" when the shark is approaching.) The turn is a blank, so this time Cheetah's best friend* adds $35 to the $125 pot, and again he gets two callers. ("Jaws" music gets louder.) By the time the river blank arrives, our hero has finally gotten the point, so he checks, as does the first caller (turns out he had a king!) The second caller bares his serrated triangular teeth at last and gobbles the pot uncontested with a $75 bet (best preflop call with Q4 suited he ever made!)

What on Earth was the Lord of the Jungle thinking? With nine opponents, the straight numerical probability that one of them had the fourth Q was 38% (18/47).

However, some people are more likely to limp with a face card than without, especially in early or middle position, so it was pretty close to even money that someone had four ladies--and Tarzan knew it wasn't him. On top of that, his first bet GAVE more information about his hand than he got. The rest of the table could be 95% sure that HE didn't have quads**, but he couldn't be sure that any caller didn't (e.g., the caller who was hoping to spike a K for Q's full of K's). In fact, one would expect a quiet call from someone who just flopped four queens.

Therefore, Tarzan's betting was one of the dumbest donations of sixty perfectly good dollars that I've ever seen.

* Sorry. I forgot how young many of today's poker players are. If you don't know who Cheetah was, ask your parents, or anyone else born before 1970.

** Notice how much better his play would have been if he HAD the case queen. NO ONE would've put him on that! He'd have gotten at least $60 out of the guy drawing for a K, and maybe someone else would've contributed an equal amount chasing an A.

In sum, certain hands don't warrant a bet. You're not playing weakly or ultra-conservatively by checking or check-folding in those situations. You're playing smart.

This article was published at an earlier date on PokerPages.com and is being rerun due to popular demand.

About the Author:
Jim Woods a middle aged Attorney (please don't hold that against him!) that loves fishing and poker. Undergraduate Degree in Math (comes in handy in poker, less so in fishing) and has one favorite poker fantasy: Using Clint Eastwood's "I know what you're thinking, punk..." lines from "Dirty Harry" on Phil Helmuth when I have him dominated in a hand!