Does Youth Equal Luck

by Daniel Negreanu

"The harder you work, the luckier you get."
- McAlexander

It amazes me how often I hear things like, "I used to hold lots of hands when I was young," or, "I used to hit every flush draw when I was young." I've heard these statements come out of the mouths of some excellent poker players. So, it got me thinking, what makes them believe that? Could it be true, or is there a more likely explanation?

Ultimately, I believe it is a matter of perception, but I think it might be interesting to discuss the events that have to take place in order for those who believe they are unlucky to feel that way. It is, of course, possible that some people happened to be luckier when they were younger, but I just don't see any real logical correlation between age and luck.

In my opinion, there's a combination of things that cause people to believe they have become "unlucky" with age. First, people fail to realize that the game has changed a great deal over the years and they need to adjust. From Poker Probe and other poker software to all of the books available on the game today, it's much easier for new players to learn the tricks of the trade.

If you stop learning the game, or don't keep up to date with what's available, it's very possible that you'll go from being a winning player to a losing player. The game will always be changing. You'll likely even find a different brand of hold'em being played on the East Coast than you would on the West Coast. If you are not making mental adjustments to the different styles of play, your results will likely suffer. You may even blame your poor results on bad luck, rather than being introspective and asking yourself if you are playing optimally.

Ten years from now, who knows what the games will look like. It's your job as a winning player to continue to hone your skills and always try to improve upon them. Always be prepared to re-evaluate your play and make adjustments to new conditions. Failure to do so may leave you with only one excuse for your poor results - bad luck.

Another thing is that after playing for so many years, some players tend to lose their passion for the game. They lose that competitive edge that once kept them one step ahead of their opponents. Basically, they become a little bitter, and somewhat agitated by the stressful fluctuations that naturally occur at the poker tables.

It's hard to fault them, though, as poker is an extremely stressful way to make a living. The daily grind can take its toll on the best of them. It can become difficult for them to get excited about playing their best, especially after they've been at it for more than 20 years. After all, there will be few surprises that await them at the tables.

If your passion is gone, that can negatively affect your perception of how lucky you are. A missed flush draw now becomes the thousandth flush draw you've missed. An hour of cold cards, now becomes years of cold cards. "I get aces once a month, and when I do, it's a miracle if I hold ‘em," or, "Don't worry, all I had was an open-end straight-flush draw. You didn't see me doing any raising; I know I don't hit ‘em like I did when I was young."

If you start counting how many consecutive times you've missed a flush draw, or how many times in a row you've lost with aces - well, let's just say you could be focusing on more constructive things. I've actually heard people go as far as saying they won't play draws like they did when they were younger. They've "adapted" to the idea that they are unlucky, so they are cautious with their draws rather than playing them aggressively. They'll say something like, "When I was young, I would have raised the flop, but when you make only about one out of eight, you have to save money when you miss." Can you see how damaging an idea like this could be to someone's overall play?

Now, I'm not saying you should go out there with guns blazing, but if you are playing hands differently than you normally would because you feel "unlucky," that's a problem. You might be allowing the affirmation that you are unlucky to negatively affect your level of confidence, as well as your ability to make good decisions.

The last thing I want to discuss is tied closely to passion, and that's focus. I've been guilty of losing my focus many times, and it has happened more often recently than when I first started playing. When I first started, I was excited about watching every hand that took place - those I was involved in and, more importantly, those in which I'd already folded. I watched every hand with great interest, looking for tells, betting patterns, opponents' emotional states, and so on.

That's how you create your own luck, by giving 110 percent, and by trying very hard to stay positive, learn, and play your best. You'll fail sometimes, but as long as you continue the pursuit of excellence, your chances of achieving it will be that much greater.

It can be hard to focus, though, when you already know the game and the tendencies of the players in the game. It can be so easy to get lazy. Knowing you can get by with your "C" game is a bad habit to get into. What will happen when you need your "A" game? Will it still be there?

In my opinion, a lack of all of these factors - study, passion, and focus - can lead to a player feeling unlucky. If you too believe you were luckier when you were younger, I suggest you ask yourself why. Re-evaluate your play, and ask yourself if you are doing everything you can to create your own luck.

It is my belief that if you study, and stay passionate and focused, you might find that you can be lucky at any age.