Tournament Tips from Carey, Sajak, and Trebek

by Shane Smith

From my couch-potato viewpoint watching sports on TV, I have learned that great competitors in individual sports such as golf, tennis, gymnastics, and skiing have many characteristics in common with tournament poker stars: endurance, poise under pressure, shifting gears when conditions change, a positive attitude in the face of obstacles, and making or missing key shots that significantly affect the outcome of the contest.

But some of the world's best unknown competitors have never picked up a racket, swung a club, or been dealt a hand. They are the weekly warriors who toil Monday-Friday on television's popular game shows. Like poker tournament players, these aficionados of gamesmanship must combine skill and luck to win, in only 3-to-20 minutes of airtime, and in front of millions of people. Here are some strategies these do-it-now-or-never contestants use to surmount the obstacles of time, notoriety, and stress.

Timing. The Number Three contestant on Wheel of Fortune was not a happy camper: He had controlled the wheel only three times in 20 minutes, first spinning it to "Lose a Turn," then guessing a wrong letter, and finally landing on "Bankrupt." As the three-way game neared its end, Pat Sajak interrupted it and gave the wheel one final spin to hasten the end of the final round. It landed on the big one, $5,000. Tension mounted as each contestant took a turn at choosing correct letters, which would be worth $5,000 apiece to the anagramist who solved the puzzle. "N," said Number Three. "There are four Ns!" Sajak chortled. "You have 5 seconds to solve the puzzle and win $20,000."

Not only did the Johnny-come-lately solve it to pocket the 20 grand, he also went on to crack the grand-prize puzzle and win a sleek new Corvette. "Well," commented Sajak, "You've gone from nothing to over $55,000 in five minutes. I'd call that good timing." Sounds like a tournament I wish I had once played.

Vintage Card Player columnist Tex Sheahan called good timing circumstance, that moment near the end of the tournament when the big stacks are pushed into the center of the baize, when you hit your best shot on the river card to capture all the marbles in the ring. Unfortunately, my experience more often has been dragging in all the chips during the early rounds, squeaking through the middle stage with cold cards, and then unwillingly donating the rest of my stack to my opponents when it really mattered, at the second-to-last table. Timing is that magic ingredient you need to take full advantage of the skill-luck mix in poker.

Skill and Luck. The recently retired Bob Barker used to give away two or three new cars every weekday on The Price is Right. These days Drew Carey is giving away the same type of stuff. The red Mustang convertible is what everybody wants to win ... not the bedroom set, the grandfather clock, or the big screen TV. But to get a chance at the big stuff, you must first defeat three opponents in a bidding war for a smaller prize (similar to a satellite) to win a place at Carey's side on stage, a feat of price-shopping skill.

The next hoop you must jump through usually requires estimating the correct price of three additional items in order to win the premium prize you're really after. But here's the kicker: After all your victories, you then must get lucky and spin closer to 100 on the Big Wheel than anyone else to win a chance at the Showcase Showdown, where you will face a single opponent in a bidding duel for all the goodies in Carey's bag ... usually another car, a fab vacation, or a manse of furniture.

This combination of skill and luck is the hook that lures me into watching the show during breakfast -- the same dual-pronged hook of tournament poker. You can be the most skillful price-guesser in history, but if you don't get lucky on the spin, you're history. Ditto for tournament duelists who adroitly arrive at the final table only to find that Lady Luck is serving the cards ala carte to someone else.

Strategy. While the insidiously memorable theme melody of Jeopardy sing-songed in the background, Dick, Jane, and Ted (the names I've given the three contestants) tackled the eliminator Final Jeopardy question. Dick had amassed $8,400, over $5,500 of it in the early stages followed by a dry spell in the second half. Jane, bright with the answers but slow on the button, had chalked up $5,200. After a sluggish start, top-dog Ted had accumulated $8,600, making big inroads in the semi-final round by wagering his entire fortune on a daily-double question, a strategy which put him in the lead.

As in no-limit poker, part of a winning Jeopardy strategy depends on the amount you bet on the elimination question (you can bet only as much money as you have in front of you, and your opponents' wagers are not visible to you). If you win, you keep the money; second prize usually is a trip; and third best takes home an electronic gadget. So how much should Dick, Jane, and Ted wager?

A major part of your betting strategy at this stage of the game depends upon what you think your opponents will bet, and how much money you think they think you will wager (the third-level thinking employed by the masters of poker). Another strategic factor is whether your bet will win second place if you miss the final question.

Jane missed, but it didn't cost her anything because she cleverly wagered zero, probably hoping to slide into second place if either opponent bet all-in and missed, or to win it all if they both missed. Believing he'd have to "double-up or get up," Dick bet $8,399, making a $1.00 "save" to ensure a second-place finish in the event that either Jane or Ted bet their entire stacks and missed.

Now, how much should Ted wager? Assuming that both Ted and Dick answered correctly, Dick would have no chance to beat Ted if both men wagered the amount of Dick's "stack" (result: Dick, $16,800 and Ted, $17,000). Ted needed to bet at least $8,201 to be assured of a win over Dick's probable all-in bet.

So here's what Ted did: He went all in! And he missed the final question. Host Alex Trebek then awarded Dick $16,799 for his correct answer; Jane, a Caribbean vacation for her wrong response; and Ted, a Sony camcorder for his gaff.

Higher-level thinking, performance under pressure, making saves, timing, the skill/luck blend, and strategic gamesmanship are not unique to tournament poker-they are important weapons anytime you find yourself in jeopardy.