Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths:
Call with Nothing
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

Ok, Ok I haven't forgotten about the KK in my last article. I just haven't got round to rewriting it yet and I feel it needs a rewrite.

But on 17th July I was playing in another £50 hold'em when another interesting hand came up. You start with 1000TC for your £50 and there are unlimited rebuys for 75 min with an add-on. You can rebuy when you are down to 500TC or less and you can rebuy and add-on on the last hand of the rebuys.

I was in mid position with about 3000TC with the blinds at 25, 50, when I picked up a AJ offsuit and with no previous limpers made it 175 to go. All passed to Charlie on the button who had 1175TC and called. Both blinds passed - just him and me.

The flop fell, KQ2.

Check, check.

Next fell a 5.

I bet 300, Charlie moved all-in and after a long thought I called the extra 700. Charlie turned over his 87 in disgust and did not hit his magical 7 or 8. He said, "How did you call with that filth" (filth: English colloq for 'rather poor cards, what-ho').

So, How did I?

2. Call with Nothing

Charlie's call pre-flop in the rebuy period in this position is not strong. He can have almost anything; like :-

Table 1 - Possible Hands

but given his chip position he would normally be looking to raise with half decent hands, hands such as those in bold.

So now what do we deduce from the check on the flop?

Well seeing as there is a KQ on the flop, Charlie should bet with almost any piece of the flop. He asked me why I didn't put him on a Kx, but he is an experienced player and he should bet top pair especially with this flop!

Could he be slow playing KK, QQ or 22? The same logic applies and we all know the maxim about giving free cards.

The only conceivable hand I can put him on would be a 55. This is the only hand that fits the whole betting pattern. You see if he had hit a second pair (say) with a QT, he might just try and get away with a call and checking down the river. The same goes for all the hands in blue italics.

To me the raise could only mean a '55' or a complete stone cold bluff!

The chance of him having the '55' is 2.42% according to 'Table 1 - Possible Hands'.

That's why I called! Charlie is a 40 : 1 to be winning on the turn.

As a reverse lesson, I think Charlie's bluff on this blank card is pretty ineffective. Well, you see my logic above! If he's going to bluff - do it anywhere but on the turn. Probably it's best on the flop where I show either weakness or massive strength by checking. I mean, he should put me on one of

Table 2 - My Possible Hands

The only conceivable hands I might slow play in this spot are those in bold i.e. KK or QQ but in reality, I personally would bet these. This at most means there is a chance that he is trapped 10.53% of the time, in which case his flop bet will drop me 89.47% of the time.

Lessons: I did good. He did bad. His bluff was one round too late!

Good luck and I look forward to writing again soon especially on that pesky KK.