Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: All In On a 22
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

In Luton we have a saying :- '2's never lose'

I was playing in this :-

130 Entries/177 Rebuys/£ 46,050

When I found myself down to about 3 tables with 25,000TC, blinds at say, 500, 1000 and holding a 22 on the button with no callers.

I moved all in and Paul Testud on my left, after a long pause and holding about 30,000TC, called with a JJ.

The turn brought the '2' and Paul justifiably knocked me out of the final!

Phew!!!!!

Was I right? Well, when I saw the JJ I didn't think so!

2. Big all-in steal.

Of course when Paul calls I know I am in desperate trouble and I don't want his call, and frankly make this obvious.

However even given the brazenness of this steal, a good player will not 'gamble' in this spot and the only hands I really fear from my two experienced and similarly stacked opponents are AA, KK, QQ and marginally, (as was demonstrated) the JJ.

What's the chance that one of the two blinds holds one of these hands? Let's see.

Table 1 - Probabilities of facing JJ or better

Now the pot odds (betting 25,000 into a 1500 pot) are 17:1 on! So the numbers are ok as it is a huge 26:1 long-shot that I face a pair, JJ or better.

So here's the rub! If you know that your two opponents are good enough players not to want to cripple their stacks on a 'gamble', the move is favourable. If you have any doubts, then fold.

3. Conundrum

A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away my friend GS was play in a supersatellite utg when a maniac to his right predictably moved all in to his KK. He had limped knowing she was making this move and of course put her all-in.

The flop came Kxy

The next 2 cards came 99!!!!!!

What a bad beat.

What's the odds on that?