Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: Heads Up Play
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

I've been playing a lot of heads up tournaments online (some of you may have noticed) and I am starting to put practice to theory.

Aggression is the name of the game (I only play no-limit unless I mistakenly sit at a limit table) and there are many important concepts.

This one is a goody!

Ask yourself this:

In an unraised pot where we totally miss the flop. What's the chance of our opponent missing too?

2. Probabilities that opponent hits flop in an unraised pot

Lets look at a variety of flop types and categorise the type of hands that constitute some sort of 'hit' for your opponent. Remember we are taking into account all varieties of play. On a KK2 flop, some players will play back with an A3! Ok heres the detail :-

2.1. Paired flop flush draw

e.g. KK2

2.2. Raggedy Flop

e.g. K82

2.3. 3 flush

e.g. Q82

2.4. 3 Straight

e.g. JT9

2.5. 2 flush

e.g. A6T

2.6. Trips

e.g. 999

2.7. Paired Flop No Draw

e.g. KK2

2.8. Straight Flush

e.g. 89T

3. Summary

In summary we have the following table :-

Surprisingly a raggedy flop may not be such a good flop to fire into when you completely miss in this unraised pot.

Where there is a 2 flush on board, we have the best situation for a bluff. Also a 3 straight is a profitable situation (33.02% your opponent will have missed). This is all food for thought and the first of a series of articles I am developing on this subject.

Keep reading and I value your comments.