Poker Articles

Big & Biggish Pairs -v- AK
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

I went out 7th in my regular £20 rebuy comp at Luton from a field of about 72. All in with the AK a hand I note I appear to have exited comps with on a regular basis of late.

I mused (as one does at the poker table especially when leaving ones seat) on the relative values of AK as opposed to big pairs.

You see it is often said (and it is true) that the value of AK as opposed to say AA is that you can get away from the former hand much easier than the latter.

Here's the results of all that musing :-

2. Big & Biggish Pairs -v- AK

We shall divide our analysis into heavily raised and small raised/unraised pots so we can define the type of flops that look scary to our starting hand.

First lets look at AA. What are bad flops for this hand ? Here's the categories I have chosen :-

2.1. Opposing 3 flush, no ace

For example K92 when you hold AA. Your opponent may have AQ or a strong draw (even though this would not be too bad) like AK.

2.2. 3 straight, not suited

For example, QJT. Your opponent may hold AK or QJ or QT

2.3. Paired flop no ace or trips

For Example QQ2. Your opponent may hold KQ or QT or AQ. Now lets consider the probability matrix :-

Table 1 - Bad flops for AA

You see how we've separated out the hand grouping to take account of whether or not the pot is 'heavily' raised. It's a bit subjective but I am saying that a paired flop with twos up to tens is no threat in a heavily raised pot. Neither are low straights a problem by virtue of same logic that in this instance most players are smart enough to play big(ish) cards.

Lets do the same for Kings.

Table 2 - Bad flops for KK

You see we added another category, 'A no king or 2nd Ace', this translates to the 'overcard' category.

Lets do Queens and Jacks next.

Table 3 - Bad flops for QQ

Table 4 - Bad flops for JJ

Now AK is different. We have to consider the GOOD flops, its easier.

Please note we will only do this exercise for the offsuit variety although the suited version has an advantage insofar as if you draw to a flush it can only be the nut flush. Heres the table :-

Table 5 - Good Flops for AK off suit

And in summary :-

Table 6 - Summary of bad flops

Just to illustrate, how the table works. In a 'Heavily Raised' pot holding QQ, 40.28% of the time, the flop will not look good to you.

You see, it is much easier to get away from an AK then an AA. If someone sneakily flops a set and you hold an AA, the flop still looks good to you ! You will probably loose a big pot ! With the AK you may fire once at a raggedy flop but you wont call a raise. You don't need to since 70% of the time you miss !

Here's another way of looking at things.

With AA you the flop is almost irrelevant. Most of the time you will like it anyway.

With AK you would prefer to win the pot uncontested pre-flop because most times you wont like the flop !

In conclusion :-

• QQ & JJ are clearly not BIG pairs. They miss the flop a lot!
• KK is a big pair but you will miss the flop a significant amount of the time.
• With AA you hardly miss the flop ever. It's generally a long term marriage.
• With AK, clear the field down but take a look at the flop. Most times it wont look too bright.