Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: Short Stacked Tournament Strategy - For Beginners
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

I've had another baby (number 6) and that's the last truly the last. No more. No more. No more.

Thank you for everyone who said nice things about my articles and also to people who said nasty things because they still read them.

Here's a question from Nik Holliday :-

"I've only played "live" twice; Both times were the £10 pot-limit rookie night tournament in Luton. Both times I've busted out shortly after the break due to insufficient chips. What is the correct strategy for playing in a game where the stack size is so small in relation to the minimum bet? 500 chips and a 25-25 start means that a single bet represents 5% of your stack and after a couple of rounds that stack has dwindled alarmingly. The first time I only rebought once but just didn't have enough chips after the rebuy period and the second time I rebought twice: Same result".
Well Nik I'm going to answer this question in a roundabout sort of way, which will cover two articles. Bear with me and thanks for the question.

2. Discussion

When I first started playing in tournaments, about 132yrs ago I played the £15 Wednesday night comp at the Vic (now defunct) I came home with the same sad story that so many scientific and conservative beginners bore their wives with every week across the world.

"I lasted well but my stack size dwindled, I didn't get a hand until I eventually went all in with an AK and a guy with a 22 and a big stack called me and I didn't improve".

Well it goes something like that doesn't it !

The conservative beginner often gets low/lowish stacked and waits for a big hand to double through on and finds himself 'walking back to Houston'.

3. Analysis

You see we are looking for a hand to 'double through with', that is a hand we are happy to go all-in with or conversely, call an all-in bet with. In our hearts and minds I suspect we are looking for a pair greater than or equal to eights or an ace with at least a Jack kicker.

The probability of hitting one of these hands is 6.79%.

Now here's one of those tables no one understands :

Table 1: Expectations to hit target hand

E	N
50.00%	10
60.00%	13
70.00%	17
80.00%	23
90.00%	33

As an illustration, to give us an 80.00% chance of hitting a double through hand we must play as many as 23 hands. This doesn't mean we will not hit one of our target hands before this; It just means exactly what it says.

As a conservative player we want that 80% degree of certainty so we must be prepared to bed in for 23 hands.

The question is, 'how much will this cost us ?'. If the answer is 'more than half our stack' we're in trouble because even if we double through we may have less than we started with at the beginning of 'the plan'.

Lets look at the 'cost'. Assume the blinds will double at the next level and there are no antes.

The 'cost' will depend on our current seat position and the time left to the next blind increase.

Here's another table :-

Table 2: Cost Table

Time to next level	Min	Max	Average
15 min	9xSB	17xSB	12xSB
30 min	6xSB	12xSB	9xSB
45 min	6xSB	9xSB	8xSB

We've considered three scenarios. 15, 30 and 45 minutes to go until the next increase.

Just so we all get it, if there is 15 minutes to go it may cost us as much as 17 x SB (i.e. 17 x the current small blind) to wait for a 'double through' hand (i.e. AJ-AK, 88+) at reasonable expectation of receiving such a hand. Phew !!!!.

So imagine we have 1000, it's a small comp with the blinds at 50,100 and that in 15 minutes the blinds increase to 100,200. We now decide we need to 'double through'. Do you see the problem ?

The last table shows us it will cost on average 600 to give a us a 80.00% chance of hitting a double through hand by which time our double may only bring us back to 800 ! Doesn't make sense. In fact the double through plan should start at about 24 x the current small blind or 1200 in chips.

Put another way, if the 'double through plan' starts when we feel low stacked, 'low stacked' in this example is when we have 1200 in chips. If we are in bad position when the double through urge first occurs, it could cost us as much as 17 x SB which means 1700 may be the required stack size !

Now that doesn't probably tally with the sense of urgency; I mean with the blinds at 50/100 are you concerned with a stack of 1700 ? Probably not.

We shall discuss further in the next article.

4. Summary Conclusion

If you are a conservative player, playing in small comps who constantly goes out under pressure from the blind structure, finishing on an all-in double through type coup, you are probably making your move too late or in fact missing a vital aspect of stack management.