Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: Weak Tournament Play from the Small Blind, Revisited
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

Um, my last article caused a 'virtual' storm. I mean apart from the barrage of insults I received on the internet I have had all sorts of direct assaults from the people who used to like me; well at least tolerate me; for example :-

The other day, my butcher threw half a leg of lamb at me and called me a poker playing swine.

Someone sprayed my house with obscenities such as, "You Poker Fraud - I hate you and hope you never get another ace in your life"

The postman refuses to deliver my mail.

My wife wont speak to me. (Well she did'nt anyway but I thought that was a phase).

My doctor prescribed an enema for bovine use and told me it was aspirin.

Now on the internet I had many heated posts both on 2+2 and the hendon mob forums. Unfortunately they were mostly anonymous so I didn't have a chance to thank the individuals concerned personally but here are my faves (with my comments in green):-

1.1. From Syd

is this geezer allright or does he need help? 42.19% of the time I will get one caller but there's only a 26.67% chance that he is calling with a KJ i'll lay evens, how much do you want? and the 'hands to limp with' , he should be working for Disney. If he is limping with A8 o/s UTG anywhere i want to know where the game is. And A 10, does he raise UTG with that or never get dealt it? 6.6. Raise ? K 9 o/s limp? yeah right???? steer me to your home game. pleeeeze.

Syd I don't have a home game because I don't have a home. I live under a rock outside Victoria Bus Station. I have a rock game.

1.2. From Prince Charles (Camilla dictated)

I thought the article was poor, the play was poor and the logic rediculous.

Rediculous is splet wrong.

1.3. From No Leaks

Thanks Camel for picking the acticle to bits so eloquently. All I therefore need to say is I could not agree more, the article is utter b*ll*cks. If I knew a jack was coming, I'd move all-in pre-flop, but assuming a random flop, his comments make no sense at all.

As I explain below, I am not theorising based on knowing a Jack is coming. This is a misconception spread by one 'poster' and picked up by others. Sorry if the article gave that impression. By the way b*ll*cks is spelt 'brilliance'.

1.4. From Butch

What I find funniest is that even in the conclusions, he quotes the percentages to 2 decimal places. You gotta be pretty confident in your original assumptions to need to know that second dp...

It would be funnier if I quoted them to 3 places but 2 is still worthy of a snigger.

1.5. From Dogsballs (I think this is a pseudonym)

1) People this stuff to improve their poker thinking? Check out this Pokerpages article You guys'll see the problem straight away.

2) he claims moving in preflop is the correct move by showing he's ok after a J flops against virtually all the estimated hands he may have been against when called.

If that's not a bit of results-oriented thinking, then I'm a purple eared baboon...ooh, ooh

As I explain below, I am not theorising based on knowing a Jack is coming. This is a misconception spread by one 'poster' and picked up by others. Sorry if the article gave that impression.

3) Paul,

If you cannot admit - or realise - that this article is very seriously flawed, then I have absolutely zero respect for you as a poker writer.

Could we establish how much respect I have lost from you by going down to zero so I can evaluate the gain I will make by making this admission ?

1.6. From RowdyZ

Sheesh say it 100 more times still doesn't make it right, and if you can't figure it out to paraphrase your reply to Paul on another post.

I have zero respect for your reading comprehension skills.

I will try to summarize for you 1 last time though I doubt it will do any good. His is saying that you need to either play a hand of that type very strong or not at all. He used that hand as example of how playing weakly was a mistake and cost him any shot of winning the pot while playing it stronger wouldhave given him a better shot at winning the pot, a BETTER shot not a lock. This hand was a perfect it example. He misplayed it and lost but if he had played it correctly he would have won.Again let me repeat, IT WAS AN EXAMPLE he is not saying you are always going to win he just used an hand that he would have won.

I love you and think you are the second cleverest person I know.

2. Response

I've inserted significant comments in red.

Here was the hand and I quote :-

"J9 in the SB with the blinds at 100,200 and my stack at around 1200. UTG limps and drags in another caller from a middle seat. The button cant resist and I flat call. The BB checks ! It's a 5 way pot and no one has a massive stack.

The flop comes J high (J62 say) and I move all-in. The QJ under the gun calls immediately and I exit the comp under a cloud the size of Greater London."

• Firstly I never intended the article to imply that I was assuming the flop would come J high. That would be stupid and I wouldn't have survived 28 articles if I was that dumb (I don't think)....... Please start long threads on poker forums expanding on this comment.

• Poker is not an exact science but the idea here is simply this. If you choose to play a trash hand from the SB with a relatively low stack (and 1200 relative to blinds totalling 300 is low !) then an all-in move is the preferred route especially if it eliminates typical limping hands such as QJ and JT and gives you the added possibility of winning the hand there and then.

• Someone commented that the pot odds would favour calls but in my opinion an additional 1000 is still a lot of chips (compared to a stack as high as 5000 which no one had) and well worth saving.

• You may win the hand there and then (have I said that before ?) - a great result or as said you may eliminate a hand that may have beat you by the river.

Its not that complex or worthy of such a furore !

The hands I identified as 'limping' hands were :-

Table 1- Hands to limp with

A9o

A8o

A7

A8-A9s

A2-A6s

KQ

KJ

KT

AT

K8s

QJ

QT

Q9s

JT

J9

88

77

22-66

56-9Ts

Well actually I made a couple of changes for Syd (added the missing 66, dropped the K9, added the AT), but the point is this is just an estimation of the hands I feel might warrant a limp in this situation. Syd also commented, "- 6.6. Raise ?". Actually 66 was excluded by mistake and also hands not in this list are not considered raising hands ! However, hands in red are those hands that I felt would call my all-in (if I had made it).

Many people commented that someone might have limped with a big hand. Well I'm not saying its impossible but what I am saying is that generally, after the rebuys, with roughly equal stacks players won't slow play big hands in pot limit comps. JUST GENERALLY, that's all. Remember Poker is made up of decisions that have a positive expectation. Unfortunately 100% certainties in poker are rare !

Here's the adjusted table

Table 2 - Chance of the preflop raise being called

	1 Plyrs	2 Plyrs	3 Plyrs	4 Plyrs
0 calls	69.48%	48.27%	33.54%	23.30%
1 calls	30.52%	42.41%	44.20%	40.95%
2 calls		9.32%	19.42%	26.98%
3 calls			2.84%	7.90%
4 calls				0.87%
Any Call	30.52%	51.73%	66.46%	76.70%

Now what did I conclude ?

Its clear that I should have moved all-in before the flop. If I chose not to fold.

Now sometimes in tournament poker if luck doesn't come to you, you have to look for it and that means doing the odd 'out of line' play ! Even though the fold is generally the right play from the SB; If you feel your chip demise is imminent and you wish to play a weak hand from the SB. Move them in and at least give your chips the chance to 'talk' for themselves.

Heres last articles conclusion, with the numbers changes according to Syd.

23.30% of the time I would win it there and then. Not great but not bad odds.

40.95% of the time I will get one caller but there's only a 21.05% chance that he is calling with a KJ and the other calling hands are all good for me once the flop is flopped. In other words we've eliminated the horrible QJ, JT matches. Even a weakish ace or an underpair isn't the end of the world.

Even if I get two callers, which according to our estimates occurs 26.98% of the time, there is less than a half chance (37.67% actually) that I have caught an unlucky KJ !

In this actual case I FEEL , the QJ would have folded pre-flop to my all-in bet and history shows there would have been no other callers.

I would have still been in the comp with a stack increased to 2000.

I genuinely believe some of the adverse reaction was caused by a degree of miscommunication on my part and apologise if that was so. I have heard that one anonymous forum poster was so incensed by my article that he attacked a hastily made effigy of YT and accidentally cut off his own thumb. I hope this will never happen again but I expect it will because he reportedly has another thumb.

Once again, if you must play weak hands, out of position and out of chips, at least try and cut down the field (not your thumb). As I say time and time again you may even get lucky and win it there and then. - An uncontested pot.

Please keep reading, I truly appreciate all you support and interest !