Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: Weak top pairs
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction

Imagine you have a T2 an d get to see a free flop from the big blind. Imagine there are two other players with no SB so you are first to act.

The question in a situation like this, i.e. when you flop a weak top pair out of position is :

When can this be a good situation ?

2. Analysis

Lets look at various hole card/flop combinations:

2.1. T2T63

If you check and someone, bets you virtually have to fold. If you bet and they raise you have to fold.

They could have:

The best you could hope for if you bet and they call is that they are making a loose call with a A6 or K6 !

This will only happen 21.13% of the time !

On the other hand if you attempt to check it out to the river, any JQKA7863 can worry you !

93.89% of the time one of these scare cards will appear ! Ok you have to knock of a few points for things like AT as being good but the point is you are gonna get a scare card - its very likely.

Thus the clear message is to bet and give it up after that or if you are up against a big field or tough players, give it up from the get go !

2.2. T2T63

Much the same goes for this hand.

If you get action it will likely be from,

And as you see in these cases only 17.86% of the time will it be good action.

Message again is bet and give it up after that or if you are up against a big field or tough players, give it up from the get go

2.3. T9829

I actually played this hand. I lead on the flop and got one caller. The turn brought the horrible Q! Now matey boy could have a made straight or flush or indeed top two pair. I checked and he bet and I wilted like a good boy.

In the same vein as before we have the following hands that will give our lead, action:

Even the flush draws you see are 50/50 to outdraw us so there is little hope once we get the action.

Despite the back door straight possibilities the 9 flush scare cards plus the 268QKA scares leave little long term hope !

I would suggest that nothing much has changed but probably a single stab on the flop is worthwhile with a commitment to quit if we get a raise or on the subsequent betting rounds as the board deteriorates.

Another question might be what's the chance in this case of us improving ?

Without a spade, we have 7.49% that is for a

Not really good (and the JQ is a bit iffy !).

The point really is take a shot on the flop and then quit !

3. Conclusion

In unraised pots seeing a cheap flop say from the big blind and flopping top pair is often a trap situation.

You are in a multi-way pot, out of position and its worth one single shot on the flop.

Quit if someone fires back and try to check it out to the river !