Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: An awful play by YT
By Paul Samuel
(The UK's answer to Mike Caro or Lassie)

1. Introduction
This year has been awful for me; I have had an awful run of and what is worse, I have played one or two terrible hands.

I am going to tell you about an awful play I made in a pot limit cash cards agame recently just to enable you to profit from my loss.

Here's the hand.

It's a £100 pot limit hold'em game at Luton Casino and the blinds are £2, £2 off the button.

I find myself one to the right of the button with a 67and with a couple of limpers ahead of me I raise the pot.

I get a couple of callers including 'G' on the button.

The flop is 377

I bet the pot (about £40) and 'G' is my only caller.

The river was a blank and I bet about £100. 'G' raised me about £150 and I move all-in and he calls pretty quickly.

Guess what he had !

Now lets see why this play stank.

2. Analysis

Players call a lead on the flop for various reasons including:

2.1. Playing a draw

In this case KQ would be an example; 45will do too or indeed any flush draw.

2.2. Playing with nothing but expecting to outplay you at a later round

Well this hand depends more on the texture of the flop and the player himself. The former needs to be favourable and the latter, strong.

A strong player may hope to turn a diamond and attack your fearful check at that point.

2.3. Having flopped a monster hand

In this case, AA, A7, 33 all qualify. 73 just isn't likely.

2.4. Playing with a little piece of the flop and hoping to check it out (in position)

44, 55, 66, A3, K3, are all possible candidates.

With 88-JJ (i.e. an over pair) you might expect a raise at this point to test your AK, KQ, AQ, AJ etc etc.

2.5. Playing with a little piece of the flop and hoping to check it out (out of position)

In this case 'G' has position so we exclude this.

Now lets break these possibilities down to the case in hand.

I just don't think case '2' applies ! 'G' is not Daniel Negreanu and he has to prepare to face an even bigger bet on the turn if a blank falls.

Now lets consider 'G's raise on the turn and cut down our options further.

I eliminate option '1' because 'G' is experienced enough to know that this raise is the move to make on the flop when you still have two cards to come ! If he held KQ why on earth did he not semi-bluff on the flop ? It just doesn't make sense. He has no draw !

I eliminate option 4 for basically the same reasons. Why now ? The turn does not scare me ! He has every reason to believe I will play on. 44, 55, 66, A3, K3 as in our examples are just not enough to continue the chase or indeed make this raise.

Thus 'G' has flopped a monster.

AA, A7, 33 are the only possibilities. Nb, they all beat me except AA.

If we allow that they all are possible we have:

AA x 6

A7 x 4

33 x 3

Which means that 6/13th of the time, we are in the clear, however:-

Most player will have raised with AA either pre-flop or on the flop; Certainly giving a free card on the flop when I could hold, say AKis risky.

This just does not seem like an AA.

A7 ? For the same reasons above, with top pair it is very likely that 'G' would have raised on the flop.

What have we left ?

33 !

What did he have ?

33.

Did I lose ?

Yes !

Did I play badly ?

Yes !

3. Conclusion

The logic all good players inevitably use to make their plays will disintegrate down to a process of elimination as described above.

Think when making important decisions in poker.

Apply a process of elimination and as Sherlock Holmes said.

'Eliminate all other factors, and the one which remains must be the truth'. -- The Sign of the Four