Poker Articles

A Bit of Maths: Doing the wrong thing

1. Introduction

Do you remember the ubiquitous film 'The Cincinnati kid'? You do? Good!

After the kid gets busted, there is a famous exchange he has with Lancey:

Lancey Howard: Gets down to what it's all about, doesn't it? Making the wrong move at the right time.

Cincinnati Kid: Is that what it's all about?

Lancey Howard: Like life, I guess. You're good, kid, but as long as I'm around you're second best. You might as well learn to live with it.

Here's the thing about half of you internet players are not going to like. Making the wrong move at the right time is never ever right! Not ever! Unless, of course, you are happy being a losing poker player.

2. Analysis

Let's take a real example that happened to me on my preferred site, Pokerstars.com.

I play low buy-in tournaments regularly to feed my habit and my articles. I do not like investing heavily on Internet play, because of reasons largely expressed in my last article

I was fairly deep into a $5 freezeout ($5k guaranteed) when I found myself with about 6.5k in chips and the blinds at 200/400. I was in mid position holding KK and the UTG player made it 1,200 to go. I moved all-in, an ABC move, as far as I am concerned, and he called with his lousy AT and flopped his flush, knocking me out.

After the inevitable 'lols' from other players his comment was, "Well, I was getting the odds."

WHAT A STUPID, STUPID, STUPID THING TO SAY! He might as well have said "eeyore!"

I checked his stats on stars and of course he had a ROI (return on investment) of -43%, hardly surprising.

I have been playing on this site for years and my stats are:

Yes! Not a fortune, but a steady, healthy profit, which after 1,185 tournaments played (on Stars) is what we should all hope for.

The fact is simple. The dummy with the AT will inevitably make a loss, not so much because he makes stupid plays like this, but more so because he is able to justify his stupidity, as was Lancey Howard.

Firstly, the player in question made a raise from a position where there were eight possible chances for him to be re-raised, a re-raise he could not suffer to call. Even if I was stupid enough to have moved all-in with an underpair to his ten, it would still be a coin-flip. Against JJ-KK he is a 2:1 dog. Against AA he is about 7:1, while a bigger ace leaves him at a 5:2 disadvantage.

After his foolish raise, he calls against a better hand for a third of his remaining stack.

Stealing in late position more than doubles his chance of winning the blinds, which is what his goal should be with such a weak hand. Stealing is fine, but you do not steal from first position, it's obviously dumb.

There is, in this player, a little gleaming light that knew he just got lucky, but his determination to self justify the bad play will get him in the end. His huge negative ROI shows that his destruction is 'on the cards.'

Most internet players play poker as if they were playing roulette or bingo. They play to get lucky. In the face of the small percentage of e-sharks who cream off the profits, this will not happen in the long term. Roulette players do of course get lucky on occasions. These winning sessions fuel their losing sessions, giving them the will to work through the hard times. The fact remains that roulette players will lose their 1/37th, or whatever, over time. That is why the casino makes a profit.

The equivalent of roulette players in poker are the, "Any two cards can win," "I was getting the odds," "I felt lucky," "They were suited,"players.

Are you one of them?

Do you want the +18% ROI or the -43%?

Think about it….

Still thinking….

THE ANSWER SHOULD BE +18%!

Look at the following selection of rules. Are you a follower or a transgressor?

• Do NOT persistently limp with small pairs or weak suited aces from early position.
• Do not play hands such as KQ, QT, QJ, KJ, and JT in raised pots, except in very special circumstances.
• 22-88 are SMALL pairs, 99-JJ are medium pairs. QQ is awkward. The others are big. Do not forget this.
• Almost never limp with a big Ace, especially from early position. It is awful.
• Rarely limp with AA, KK, except occasionally from early position when you think there is a good chance of a raise.
• Take account of others stack sizes before stealing their blinds. If they are low stacked, they may call you with anything. If that is the case, you weren't stealing in the first place.
• Play suited cards as if they they were unsuited. Their suitedness only gives you an advantage of another few percent!
• Do not habitually make up the small blind 'for value'. A hand like 9-2 only hits a really good flop about two percent of the time! (I don't count top pair as truly good). A number of these bets saved will eventually add up to a lot.
• Do not on a regular basis commit all your chips pre-flop. Hold'em is a seven card game!
• Do not persistently play 'cliché' moves; like going all in on the BB to a limping field, or stealing from the button. Online these moves are well known and you may get an unwelcome play-back.
• Never show bluffs. You are giving away free information and those players who claim they do this to create value later are either fools or liars. Usually, players show bluffs to show off. Any player who thinks there is enough good opposition at his e-table to react in a way that makes him money at a later hand because of his 'show' is delusional.

3. Conclusion

If you want to be a poker player, then by definition you should want to be a profitable one. Check your play against the rules I laid out above. These are not the whole set, but they are obvious ones. If you follow them you will be rewarded by a positive ROI. Until such time, as we meet across the table, good luck with your game.

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