Poker Articles

ARTY'S POKER Q & A
By Art Santella

Hurray! My "Long Run" Is Coming, But Will I Still Be Alive When It Gets Here?

If you have read my columns before you know I hate the term "long run." To me it is the human mind trying to rationalize something that seems to be an almost mystical and unknown mathematical probability. Let's talk plain English here. One thing we can be sure about is that in the "long run", we will all be dead. That's a fact, one of the few that the long run guarantees. In truth you can't worry about what may come in the "long run", as you have to gamble in the part of your long run you are in at this point in time. I mean it's like we are saying that we can predict that if we do something long enough, we can be sure that it will eventually come out in our favor. Can we guarantee that there is a long run that will eventually favor us? Can we guarantee there is life after death? Both are a leap of faith.

Question
Let's assume we have an expert player having a run of bad cards, this proficient player has played 3,000 hours and is in the red. Should he consider giving up the game or is 3,000 hours still the short run? Advice please.

Opinion 1
To go 3000 hours and still be losing, is not exactly what you might call expert play? Many articles in gambling magazines give readers the impression that you can go to the poker room and win money each time you play, if you are good player. This we all know is not true. In poker the best player does not always win. However, in the long run will they be guaranteed winners? Are you 100% sure? Would you bet your life on it? Nothing in this life is guaranteed, and I can only hope that I am alive when my long run arrives.

Opinion 2
A few years ago Lou Krieger wrote a few columns about the long run. His results were based on research he did using Turbo Texas Hold'em. To paraphrase his words; "Without explaining the entire article, it would suffice to say that luck was still a significant factor after one simulated year of play (2,000 hours.) Even after a lifetime of poker (He simulated 30 years worth of hands at 30 hands per hour, 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year) about one to one-and-one-half percent of results was still attributed to luck. Lou's first book, "Hold'em Excellence: From Beginner to Winner", interprets these results, and their bearing on the game.

Opinion 3
To me winning at poker is a constant struggle between maximizing wins and minimizing variance. Going back to basics is the only way I know of to ensure that my game remains on a solid foundation. If you are behind after 3000 hours, you need to get better or find an easier game.

Arty's Opinion
I hate the term "Long Run." The long run truthfully can only come into play if you have an infinite life span and bankroll. In that case you may come into "your long run" many times over. Is the long run 500 hours, 500 days, 500 years, or 500 centuries? I really believe that some people are in their long run when I play with them. If you think about it, we have all seen people that are rich and famous. These people seem to have everything going for them, for example, wealth, looks, health, and success. Could it be that they are in their long run at this point in time? Now, let's take a look at some poor soul who is for example, sick, down for the count, homeless, and broke. Has this person not yet reached their long run, or not? It can make you kind of crazy just thinking about the implications. When I find out what the average long run is, and if I am going to hit it in my lifetime, I may change my thoughts on the subject. There is no doubt at all that a good player can go into a bad run of cards that can seem to last forever. It also has to do with the player. If he plays every day and his bad run lasts more than a month or so, it's time for him to critique his game. To a player who plays once or twice a week it can seem to go on for months. This is due to the fact that not playing consistently makes short term luck a bigger factor. I have had streaks that may have lasted for several days, but because I was playing several sessions a day, and could not win to save my life, it was destroying my confidence. You have to picture the following scenario, you know you played well, but never hit a flop, or when you did, you ended up second best every time. You start to question your sanity; "I don't believe this". You start to believe that no matter what you play, you are headed for a dead end. You are well aware of your tilt factor, skill, and luck, but you still keep saying to yourself, "If it wasn't for bad luck I wouldn't have any luck at all." Now you're in trouble. You have to find the internal fortitude to get your butt out of the chair, and leave. You finally bring yourself to leave the game, and the next day like a bad dream, it starts all over again. Well, its not only part of poker, but of life. Live with it, it's the cost of doing business in this life. This reminds me of something I said before in reference to my luck. "I opened a fortune cookie, and it said "Prepare yourself for a Good Year", two days later I was hit by a Goodyear tire truck"

"If You Ain't The Lead Dog, The Scenery Never Changes"

Now go win money.

Questions & Feedback to: arty@optonline.net