"The Rhythms of Poker: Bye-Bye, Bankroll"
By Kyle Swanson

So here you are, sitting at a game in which you could have sworn you were a big favorite. Hours have passed, and not only are you not winning, you're losing. Not heavily, but enough to make you annoyed with both yourself and the poker gods. You know you can beat this game, but the fact is that you are not beating this game. You're not only out of the groove, but your instrument - your brain - is already probably so out of tune that it may not play acceptable poker music for a while.

Part of you says you can just grind it out, that your superior skills will offset your poor luck as the hours go by. But you said that hours ago, and here you are, same game, same luck, same shrinking pile of chips. If only there was some rule to help you make your decision. Well, there are many such rules; the trick is knowing when to apply them.

To preface my own set of rules, let me state that as with any article on poker, this is all merely one player's opinion. Poker is what it is because there are very few hard and fast rules when it comes to strategy. Everything is ultimately subjective in that arena, but certain rules make sense because they work as time goes by (you must remember this, a beat is just a beat...). Here's a simple one (if not always easy to stick to) that has worked for me over the years.

The most vital rule of them all is to have a maximum amount that you'll allow yourself to lose for the session clearly set in your mind before you arrive. The best idea is to bring that much money, and never take credit from the house or other players. This will save you much cash and many friends. Even if you hit your stop-loss limit within a few brutal hands, you must leave. Breaking this rule will break your bankroll, and soon. If you find that you set a limit and regularly break the rule, then you will go broke. Frequently. Count on it.

To find that magic amount, first assess your bankroll, and the games you usually play. Let's look at limit poker first. I believe that in order to play your best game without playing scared - scared money is dead money, absolutely - you need at least 300 big bets in your bankroll. Some think that 200 or even 100 is enough, but if you really want a realistic shot at a game, 300 is a minimum. If your local game is a 4-8, that means 2,400. If 20-40, it's more like 12 dimes.

I came to this number by assessing years' worth of notes, seeing how I played when I ran bad and how long those streaks lasted. If you want to keep your bankroll and your game alive, you need to be totally honest with yourself. Some of us play better when we start losing, tightening up and getting very wary. That can become scared poker mighty fast, but is a better idea than just plowing ahead and tilting off your entire roll in a few ugly sessions. The key to that 300 big bet number is how much you can lose in one session.

Here's where the art meets the science. If you limit yourself to losing 30 big bets (bb) max per session, you have ten shots at the game before busting out. By about halfway through that number you should be seriously considering playing a lower limit and keeping your roll alive, unless it's the only game in town and you have a steady source of non-poker income and are willing to keep feeding the game. But maybe it's time to admit that you are outclassed in this game, hard as that can be to deal with. Hey, we all hit a ceiling sooner or later. Those who accept their limitations will be the long-term winners; Dirty Harry played good poker (although that bank robbing punk had a 50-50 shot at Clint being out of .44 slugs...might've been a good call!).

30 bb is a decent number to limit yourself to losing in a night, but I don't use that as a fixed rule. In general, I will buy in for 20 bb. If I blow through that, I will be honest in assessing the game. If I think I'm playing well and just on a brief bad run, and the game is truly good, I'll buy in for another 20 bb. If I lose that as well, I am usually out of there. I will break my 40 bb rule only if the game is really great and I have been running well before that night. I will NEVER blow more than 60 bb in a game (again, that is...I did it a couple times early on and learned my lessons, hence this column).

If you are down 60 bb, brother, you might get back to even...but for every time you do, I guarantee you will drop a bunch extra at least three times more often than you recoup, and your game will be affected for a long time to come. This last is a very vital point. A massive loss will shift your thinking about your game and the nature of life itself to the point where you won't know what good poker is for days, weeks or even months. That adds up to bye-bye, bankroll, a tune that is no fun to sing.

That last paragraph might have saved me mucho dinero had I read it ten years ago, and really understood it. Reread it a few times and see if it doesn't click with the facts as you have experienced them. Try to recall it next time you are way stuck and thinking that it's time for you to hit a lucky streak.

The truth is that when you are not winning, three things are occurring in some combination: you are either playing badly, running badly, or being outplayed. Or all three (happy, happy, joy, joy!!). But hey, most of us gamblers are in the self-deception business, so why be honest with ourselves?

Let's say you're playing badly (hardest to spot and admit, otherwise you'd play better, right?). Ask yourself, why throw more money at a game where you are making yourself lose?

Let's say they are playing better than you. Is this a rare occurrence, or are you kidding yourself every night you are in this game? Time to review your notes and get real (and if you're not keeping even basic notes, you're already being outplayed to begin with). You shouldn't be in a game unless you are a favorite, or rich (and bored), or just plain stupid and need to gamble to feel alive (pick two or more).

Now the really tricky one: are you running bad? We all like to claim we are, but if you review your big hands as the session goes on you should be able to tell if the poker gods are to blame, or if it's just you making marginal plays. Guess which one is more likely? Hint: it's a poor workman that blames his tools.

Next month we'll pursue this subject and get into why 20 bb is the real target number...usually...sometimes!

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