The Rhythms of Poker: It's Hard To Get Unstuck When You're Coming Unglued
By Kyle Swanson

In the last column I left off with the thought that if you're losing, it's because you're playing badly, running badly, or being outplayed. I think that these are all dangerous, and in that order.

If you're being outplayed, you probably shouldn't even be in the game. But you are, so you can quit while you're behind, or you can use the situation to your advantage, batten down the hatches, play only big cards in late position to no raises, and watch. Look. Listen. Learn. If they're outplaying you, stop giving them money, and figure out how they are beating you. Then use their game against them. That's good poker. The best thing about playing better players is there's a lot to learn. The worst thing is that they will get all your money....eventually. IF you let them.

If you are playing badly, stop. Do not pass go and do not pay 200 bucks, or 200 big bets, or even 20 bb. Either leave, or shut it down and watch, look and listen. But truly, if you know you're playing badly and are losing money, be wise: just go home and try to figure out where you went wrong. You'll be back, and smarter. That's also good poker.

It's the middle reason for losing that is trickiest: running bad. This is the one we all like to blame, but often and concurrently refuse to accept. We all know what a really bad beat looks like (perfect-perfect, in my book). It's the marginal bad beats that will add up over time and do in your bankroll, if you let them. I'm talking about the nights you never hit your flush, but they always do. When you see 15 small pairs without hitting a set. When your kings always see an ace flop, but your big slick never does. Et cetefrickin'ra. You know the drill.

So, what to do? When is enough "bad" beats enough?

Here's where my stop-loss rule kicks in. Put simply, I see it like this: if you've been running normal, catching some and missing some, and the game is good and you are a top-three favorite in it, then go ahead and dump 40 bb (if you must). Then call it a night. Only a truly great game is worth pursuing for more bets than that, and they are rare. Face this simple poker truth: once you're losing, it's hard to start winning. It can be done, and yeah you watched old Joe Schmo go from 70 bb down to 50 bb winner last week, but how often does he do that? How often have you done it? Compare that to the sum total lost over a year once you are down 40 bb to the sum total won. It won't be pretty, I guarantee it. Most folks don't play or run like crap only to see their A-game suddenly reappear once they're way down. It's a fact. Face it, take the loss like a man, or a woman, or a mouse, and keep some cheese for when you get back to your hole.

That is only if you've been running and playing ok. Let's say it happens that you do your best but the cards won't cooperate, and you drop 40 bb. You come back the next night, and it starts the same way. Here's where the stop-loss rules become useful. Do NOT drop 40 bb again. Get to 30 bb and call it a night. Maximum. If you take a couple particularly ugly beats early on, you might want to call it at 20 bb, or even 10 if you can feel ugliness on the horizon. We all know that feeling, but only the real winners can listen to their gut and bail early. Be one of them.

So now your 300 bb bankroll (see last column) is 230 or less. I'd say don't play the next night. Sit out a few days and go over what you did wrong. You were probably chasing more once you were stuck, if you're like most of us, and that compounded with less than normal luck got you really stuck. Simply tighten way up and see what happens.

Here's where it can get fugly, if you let it.

If you are losing but still playing your A-game, then it's time to admit that you are---o' most accursed of all poker terms---running bad. Ouch. Now what?

This is where the stop-loss rule will well and truly save your ass. My rule is this: if you blow 40 bb one session and 30 the next, you must absopositivilutely not drop more than 20 bb in any one session after that until you start winning regularly again. Period. Here's why:

When you are running bad, things get weird. You become afraid to raise with anything, even aces, 'cause you've had them cracked so many times. If you get to that point you are in deep trouble, because good poker is aggressive poker, and limping and calling will not come close to getting the EV you so richly deserve. Your draws don't come home. Your pairs meet overpairs. Your sets meet over-sets. Worst of all, the other players see it, feel it, and know it: you are scared. Scared money is dead money, and they will pounce all over you. And rightly so; poker is won by the strong and brave. Well, okay, the smart and crafty. And lucky.

Yes, I said lucky. No matter what they say about luck evening out in the long run, if you run bad in the short run---and you will, because we all do---and have no money management skills, you won't be around to see the long run, to enjoy the running good side of the equation. There are only two ways to do that: set increasingly smaller stop-loss limits, or stop playing altogether.

As shown, my rule is one 40 bb loss, then a 30 bb loss, then 20 bb losses at the most. And after more than a few of those in a row, STOP PLAYING POKER!!! If a bad run of running bad chews up half the bankroll you started with when the run began, just lay off the cards for a while. A week, a month, a few months, whatever it takes to get you there. I know one non-stop poker-playin' guy who decided he'd take a year off after running rather bad and tiring of paying poker tithes to the poker gods (and rake to the poker devil), and he realized that there was so much more to life than the constant poker he'd been playing that he ended up taking more than two years off. When he came back his game was still good and he had blissfully forgotten how badly you can start playing when the cards go sour. Plus he had a life apart from poker again, which can only improve your game and your existence in general.

But that's an extreme. A few weeks or months should be enough to turn your luck and your head around. I've rarely heard of a truly bad run that lasted more than a few months...but the longer it gets, the worse you play, and the ugly spiral is now under way. Better to bail for a while, or at the very least take some small losses until you see your luck turn.

It's tough to get unstuck when you're coming unglued. Even if the game is good, it can be the best move to leave early while losing. Leaving a good game can be the sign of a true pro; just because the game is good doesn't mean that you can beat it. The poker gods will always have their way. Give them some room and they will give you some respect. Trying to get it all back at once can be a true disaster that snowballs into serious ugliness as the days and chips fall by the wayside.

Coming back fresh and rested tomorrow after just a small loss will help you get even faster. It is one long session, after all. It's easy to sleep after a small loss, but not so easy after a big one. Five small 20 bb losses equal one big loss. But they hurt so much less.

And we play to feel good, don't we?

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