Player's Stories

Bad Player, Good Cards
By Jason King

So, you're at your weekly backroom poker game. And this week there's a new player that's here to be relieved of his hard earned money, preferably by you. After a few hours of play it becomes painfully obvious that this new player really is a fish, just waiting to be eaten. He's playing horribly, he's in on 3, 8 offsuit showing it down every other hand. This guy can't fold he just keeps playing trash.

So you break loose and decide that you're going to bust him wide open. So, you end up deeply pot committed against him where he proudly shows down your second best hand with the stone cold nuts.

What the **** just happened. He was a fish. He plays horribly ALL THE TIME. How in HELL did he just show you down? You start thinking all kinds of things. Hustling, Collusion, Road Man, Marked Deck.maybe. But all the more likely is he honestly drew those stone cold nuts, and you were to caught up in his "bad play" to give him credit for it.

QUESTION: Doyle Brunson, Johnny Chan, Phil Helmuth, Mike Caro, Howard Lederer, John Vorhaus, and Joe Schmoe, an insurance salesman from Palatka, Florida all sit down at the felt together. On the first hand one of the above seven is dealt pocket rockets. Now out of that table of World Class poker players what are the odds that Joe Schmoe is the one holding the American Airlines Ticket?

ANSWER: Joe Schmoe, the insurance salesman from Palatka, Florida, has exactly the same odds of holding that opening pair as any one of those poker greats.

WHY: Because skill has absolutely nothing to do with how the cards fall.

Sounds simple right? Everyone has the same chance to be holding a great opener. Yet, in mid level play, this is one of the most frequent mistakes I see being made. And absolutely one of the biggest detriments to ones bankroll.

My Great Uncle Herby, from San Antonio (Great because he introduced me to poker and dog racing and because he was my Grandmothers, Sisters, Husband) use to tell me that "the sun can shine on a dogs ass some days". And nothing could be more true. Skill be damned. Sometimes, the WORST poker PLAYER in the world is going to be holding the BEST poker HAND. It has to happen, or all your time spent studying statistics and odds is useless.

Example:

If you have a 99 to 1 advantage over a player, 1 time out of 100 he HAS to make his hand. In order for you to be the winner the 99 other times, he has to win once.

Don't take it personally, look at it as the math reinforcing itself, and feel that much more confident in your game. And try using your observations to minimize the damage from that 1 in 100 draw.

Poker is a game of skill. It really is. But that skill is in no way derived from an ability to be able to "outdraw" your opponents. The cards are going to fall however that deck is shuffled. The skill aspect has to do with your reaction to how the cards have fallen and how you handle your opponent's reaction to their cards. And if your opponent makes a big draw, you have to be in tune enough to the game to REALIZE he's holding that monster and not put your stack in jeopardy against it. And you have to fully understand that sometimes your opponent is going to hold the better cards. There is no such thing as deserving a hand. There are no poker gods (knock on wood). No one EARNS the cards they're given. This is where the term "luck of the draw" was coined.

You don't have to like your opponent, but you have to respect him, if you're going to maintain an edge. If you continue to play a "weak player" eventually , if you are patient enough, he will make such a large error in play that you can exploit it and take a part of his stack from him. However, if you just label him a "bad player" and disregard his actions, it may end up being your bankroll that suffers.