Players considering a trip to Russia for some poker action should bear in mind two events in St Petersburg in June.

Taleon Poker Club will be staging it's annual Taleon Masters events from Wednesday June 19th to Sunday the 23rd & the main event will be the $700 entry No Limit Hold'em (1 re-buy). Other events include Omaha pot limit, 7-stud pot limit & Hold'em pot limit (2 events). All events commence at 8pm, so you will have ample time to see the sites of this historic & beautiful city of 6 million.

Taleon is one of Russia's classiest casinos with vintage décor worth millions of dollars, a relaxed atmosphere, superb restaurant & service without match for players & their guests. Contact : Peter Nicholson, Telephone ++7-812-3157645.

From Monday, 24th June until the 30th, the Conti Group of Casinos will be holding it's now famous "White Nights" festival of poker. The main event is the $600 entry No Limit Hold'em (1 re-buy). Most events commence at 5pm. Contact: Julia Kuzmich on telephone ++7-812-9472732. Julia who not only speaks perfect English, but can also arrange visas & heavily discounted hotel accommodation in superior lodgings, as well as airport transfers & sightseeing tours.

White Nights refers to the fact that at this time of year in this part of the world there is virtually 24 hours of daylight, although the hours from midnight to 4am could be better described as being murky grey.

If you are planning to go to Vienna for the World Heads-Up Championships, which end on June 16th, why not join "Bendigo" Sloan's poker tour to St. Petersburg directly from Vienna.

Anyone wishing to arrange their own visas can contact Vadim Ribakov (English spoken) in Moscow by telephone ++ 7-095-9786934. Tourist visas can usually be arranged within 2-3 business days, which is about the fastest service available on short notice.

POKER & 5-Card Stud - Analysis

Following my references to "Game Theory" in recent articles, I have been asked about it by some players here in Moscow, especially relating to the assertion that "the underdog in the hand may very well be the money favorite".

As illogical as this may seem, David Sklansky has proven it mathematically in his superb poker book The Theory of Poker first published by Two Plus Two Publishing in 1987. Interested players can read all about game theory in the 1999 edition at Chapter 19 commencing at page 179 & titled "Game Theory and Bluffing."

Game Theory is a branch of Mathematics dealing with the decision making process, & attempts to discover mathematically the best strategies against someone who is also using the best strategies. Sklansky makes it very clear that game theory cannot replace sound judgment & is usually used when you don't know your opponent or when you believe your opponent's judgment is equal to or better than your own.

Sklansky's example comes from draw lowball with no joker, in which Player1(P1) stands pat with a 98 low, & Player 2 (P2) has a draw with 18 winning cards from the 42 remaining in the deck (& therefore 24 cards that fail to improve his hand). The pot stands at $200 & P2 has the option of betting $100 after the draw.

The Mathematics of this Situation - 100 hands

1. P2 bets $100 every time & P1 calls every time. Net result : P1 wins $1200 2. P2 bets only when he improves & P1 folds every time. Net result:P1 wins $600 3. P2 bluffs 25% of the time time & P1 calls every time Net result :P1 loses $600 4. P2 bluffs 25% of the time & P1 folds every time Net result:P1 loses $600

Note: Bluffing 25% of the time equates to 6 times every 24 bets, since you have 18 cards that improve your hand PLUS 6 bluffs.

Optimum Bluffing Frequency(OBF): OBF has the result that it makes no difference how your opponent plays as he will do equally badly whatever he does (in the above example P1 loses $600 every 100 hands whether he calls or folds). P1 has no defence against optimal execution of game theory.

Conclusion: Even though P1 was a 4 to 3 favorite with 24 winning cards & 18 losing cards, bluffing exactly 6 times out of 24 bets has turned P2 into a 4 to 3 money favorite.

How to Calculate Your Optimum Betting Frequency at the Table

Bet in such a way that the odds against your(P2) bluffing are identical to the odds your opponent (P1) is getting from the pot.

Calculation "At the Table": First determine the pot odds your opponent will be getting from the pot after you have bet. Then you should bluff with such frequency that the odds against your bluffing are the same as your opponent's pot odds.

So in example 1 below, where your $100 bet gives P1 pot odds of 3 to 1, you will bluff once every 4 bets which equates exactly to the 3 to 1 odds P1 is getting from the pot. Therefore, if your opponent is getting 7 to 1 pot odds, you should bluff once in every 8 bets.

Example 1: When P2 bets $100, creating a $300 pot, P1 is getting 3 to 1 pot odds for a call . Bluff 6 times in 24 bets = bluff 25% of the time = one bluff every 4 bets = 1 bluff for every 3 non-bluffs.

Example 2: When P2 bets $100, creating a $600 pot, P1 is getting 6 to 1 pot odds for a call. Bluff 3 times in 21 bets = bluff 14.28% of the time = 1 bluff every 7 bets = 1 bluff for every 6 non-bluffs.

Bill Marczak

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