It's All in the Numbers
By Susie Isaacs

I began my tournament career in Las Vegas back in the mid 80's. At the time, poker tournaments were not nearly as plentiful as they are today. My favorites, the tournaments which got me interested in tournament play, were ladies tourneys. I began my love for tournament play in two ladies events a week, one at the Tropicana and one at the Sahara. Eventually the Las Vegas Hilton and the Gold Coast added ladies competitions. Poker tournaments served a purpose for the poker industry, they got the bodies in the door. They also served a purpose for the poker players, for some it was a social outlet for not very much of an investment and for others, it was a good investment overlay.

Today, Las Vegas alone offers dozens of tournaments a week at various casinos. From the mid 80's until the mid 90's I was playing an average of three to five tournaments a week. As I got more and more involved, my competitive nature took over and I played to win, winning at least one a month and scoring in one or two a week, usually in the top three places. At the time it seemed so easy, all I had to do was show up, play well, catch a little luck or manage not to get unlucky, and get there.

If there is one of my Mom's adages that has proven forever true, it is, "Life is a state of change." It's not that easy any more. After long dry spells in the tournament arena, whether weekly tourneys or majors, I took a good long look at my records and did some analyzing. I attribute some of my early success to the lack of superior tournament players back then. About 75% of the field would be dead money, and today only about 25% would be dead money. That's a huge turnaround. Tournament players have become much better players due to more experience, availability of books on tournament play, private lessons, and the individual incentive to take home the gold, so to speak.

Poker tournaments, both little weeklys, mini-majors and majors have grown and become so popular that more and more casinos are battling for time slots throughout the year to hold their own tournament. Major gambling cities, like Tunica, Reno, Atlantic City, and Las Vegas are all competing with each other over who can get the best tournament staff, the most tournament players and provide the best overall tournament possible. It has gotten to the point where there are no more openings on the calendar year to hold any more major tournaments.

Because of the popularity of poker tournaments, the player base has increased drastically, taking the prize pools to very attractive overlays. More and more poker players are entering tournaments because of the huge, life changing, "pot of gold" at the end of the rainbow possibility.

I used to take winning and placing in poker tournaments for granted, I now believe winning a poker tournament is one of the hardest accomplishments I can achieve. It isn't anywhere as easy as it used to be and I have come to the conclusion, "It's All in the Numbers." By that I mean, the amount of tournaments you play versus the amount you will win. The more you play of course, the more opportunity you have to win one. But also, the more you play, the more investment you have to make and therefore, you stand to have a net gain of less money.

As an example, a married couple who are friends of mine played a total of 30 events between the two of them at the World Series of Poker this year (needless to say this couple is wealthy.) Let's just say the average tournament buy-in was $2,000, not including the main event, that's a $60,000 investment for 30 events. Luckily, they both made a score or two along the way and one decent showing. Their gross win amounted to approximately $75,000, that's about a $14,000 profit for an investment of over five times that amount. That's not a bad win but considering the initial outlay it would be devastating for most to invest that much and possibly not make a score.

On the other hand I played four events and placed in the money in two of them. To make that statement sounds impressive, except for the fact that I lost money this year at the WSOP. Had I managed to get just enough luck to have scored a little higher in each event that I managed to claw my way to a payday, I could have had a wonderful 2001 WSOP. My initial investment for the four events was $3,500 (I played the main event on a super satellite win), my return was $3,520. Looks like I made a $20 profit, but in reality I lost money due to one-table satellites and super satellites.

The life of a poker player can be so totally frustrating. Let's face it, most players who come in second in major competitions are not happy, not to mention 15th or 23rd. So I stand back and watch as some of the superior players come in the money over and over again and I realize that these players are playing so many more tournaments. No one mentions the dozens of competitions they participate in and do not score, just the ones where they are at, yet another final table. It's all in the numbers. My conclusion: I'm still trying to figure that out!